Abstract
Influenza A (H1N1) was spread widely between cities and towns by road traffic and had a major impact on public health in China in 2009. Understanding regulation of its transmission is of great significance with urbanization ongoing and for mitigation of damage by the epidemic. We analyzed influenza A (H1N1) spatiotemporal transmission and risk factors along roads in Changsha, and combined diffusion velocity and floating population size to construct an epidemic diffusion model to simulate its transmission between cities and towns. The results showed that areas along the highways and road intersections had a higher incidence rate than other areas. Expressways and county roads played an important role in the rapid development stage and the epidemic peak, respectively, and intercity bus stations showed a high risk of disease transmission. The model simulates the intensity and center of disease outbreaks in cities and towns, and provides a more complete simulation of the disease spatiotemporal process than other models.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Fraser C, Donnelly C A, Cauchemez S, et al. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings. Science, 2009, 324: 1557–1561
Cao Z D, Zeng D J, Wang Q Y, et al. Epidemiological features and spatio-temporal evolution in the early phase of the Beijing H1N1 epidemic. Acta Geogr Sin, 2010, 65: 361–368
Lu Y H, Ju L W, Jiang Q W. The ponder of outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) (in Chinese). Chin J Prev Med, 2009, 43: 471–473
Chen J M, Sun Y X, Liu S, et al. Origin and future distribution of the new A(H1N1) influenza virus emerging in North America in 2009. Chinese Sci Bull, 2009, 54: 2174–2178
Zeng G, Zhang L J. How does China response A/H1N1 influenza pandemic more effectively (in Chinese). Chin J Epidemiol, 2009, 30: 653–655
Olsen S J, Chang H L, Cheung T Y, et al. Transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome on aircraft. N Engl J Med, 2003, 349: 2416–2422
Fang L Q, de Vlas S J, Feng D, et al. Geographical spread of SARS in mainland China. Trop Med Int Health, 2009, 14(Suppl 1): 14–20
Cao C X, Xu M, Chang C Y, et al. Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in mainland China using meta-modeling. Chinese Sci Bull, 2010, 55: 4165–4175
Fang L Q, de Vlas S J, Liang S, et al. Environmental factors contributing to the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China. PLoS One, 2008, 3: e2268
Khan K, Arino J, Hu W, et al. Spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus via global airline transportation. N Engl J Med, 2009, 361: 212–214
Chang C Y, Cao C X, Wang Q, et al. The novel H1N1 influenza A global airline transmission and early warning without travel containments. Chinese Sci Bull, 2010, 55: 3030–3036
Zeng G. Several critical issues about response to A (H1N1) influenza (in Chinese). Chin J Epidemiol, 2009, 30: 421–423
National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook (in Chinese). Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009. 616
Bureau of Statistics of Changsha. Changsha Statistical Yearbook (in Chinese). Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009. 399
Cao Z D, Zeng D J, Wang Q Y, et al. An epidemiological analysis of the Beijing 2008 Hand-Foot-Mouth epidemic. Chinese Sci Bull, 2010, 55: 1142–1149
Xiao H, Tian H Y, Zhu P J, et al. The dynamic simulation and forecast of urban population distribution based on the multi-agent system (in Chinese). Prog Geogr, 2010, 29: 347–354
Xiao H, Tian H Y, Zhao J, et al. Study on the spread of influenza A (H1N1) under community based simulation model (in Chinese). Chin J Epidemiol, 2010, 31: 696–699
Cliff A, Haggett P. Methods for the measurement of epidemic velocity from time-series data. Int J Epidemiol, 1982, 11: 82–89
Trevelyan B, Smallman-Raynor M, Cliff A D. The spatial dynamics of poliomyelitis in the United States: From epidemic emergence to vaccine-induced retreat, 1910–1971. Ann Assoc Am Geogr, 2005, 95: 269–293
Xiao H, Tian H Y, Zhao J, et al. Progress on the study of analysis and prediction modelling of epidemic (in Chinese). Chin J Epidemiol, 2011, 32: 81–85
Cliff A D, Haggett P, Smallman-Raynor M. An exploratory method for estimating the changing speed of epidemic waves from historical data. lnt J Epidemiol, 2008, 37: 106–112
Shi Y L. Stochastic dynamic model of SARS spreading. Chinese Sci Bull, 2003, 13: 1373–1377
Wang H Y, Rong F, Ke F J, et al. Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission. Chinese Sci Bull, 2003, 48: 2684–2687
Wallinga J, Teunis P. Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am J Epidemiol, 2004, 160: 509–516
Li Y P, Qian Q, Fang L Q, et al. Epidemiological characteristics of 420 influenza A (H1N1) cases confirmed in the early stage of the epidemic in mainland China (in Chinese). Chin J Epidemiol. 2009, 30: 1102–1105
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Rights and permissions
This article is published under an open access license. Please check the 'Copyright Information' section either on this page or in the PDF for details of this license and what re-use is permitted. If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and re-use information, please contact the Rights and Permissions team.
About this article
Cite this article
Xiao, H., Tian, H., Zhao, J. et al. Influenza A (H1N1) transmission by road traffic between cities and towns. Chin. Sci. Bull. 56, 2613–2620 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4598-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4598-5