Abstract
In this talk, based on [1], we propose a spatio-temporal analysis of daily death counts in Italy, collected by ISTAT (Italian Statistical Institute), in Italian provinces and municipalities. While in [1] the focus was on the elderly class (70+ years old), we here focus on the middle class (50–69 years old), carrying out analogous analyses and comparative observations. We analyse historical provincial data starting from 2011 up to 2020, year in which the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the overall death process are assessed and analysed. The cornerstone of our analysis pipeline is a novel functional compositional representation for the death counts during each calendar year: specifically, we work with mortality densities over the calendar year, embedding them in the Bayes space B2 of probability density functions. This Hilbert space embedding allows for the formulation of functional linear models, which are used to split each yearly realization of the mortality density process in a predictable and an unpredictable component, based on the mortality in previous years. The unpredictable components of the mortality density are then spatially analysed in the framework of Object Oriented Spatial Statistics. Via spatial downscaling of the results obtained at the provincial level, we obtain smooth predictions at the fine scale of Italian municipalities; this also enable us to perform anomaly detection, identifying municipalities which behave unusually with respect to the surroundings.
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Scimone, R., Menafoglio, A., Sangalli, L.M., Secchi, P. (2023). The Death Process in Italy Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Functional Compositional Approach. In: Brito, P., Dias, J.G., Lausen, B., Montanari, A., Nugent, R. (eds) Classification and Data Science in the Digital Age. IFCS 2022. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-09034-9_36
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