Water-Energy Equation in Central and South Asia: A Perspective from Tajikistan

Abstract

Central and South Asia are connected in many ways. Water and energy have the potential to further strengthen these links. South Asia needs energy to fuel its development, while the waters of Central Asia can be used to produce the clean and sustainable energy needed by South Asia. The major rivers of both regions are transboundary in nature, and bilateral and multilateral cooperation is essential to tap their full potential. In Central Asia alone, the annual economic benefits of cooperation were estimated at 5% of regional GDP. Hydropower is a sector where potential for cooperation is high, both within Central Asia and between Central Asia and South Asia. The capacity of Central Asian hydropower generation capacity can transform the energy market in both regions; the chapter analyzes the specific needs of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India and the potential for further cooperation. Finally, this chapter discusses the main challenges along the water-energy nexus in both regions, particularly climate change and population growth, suggesting ways forward.

1 Introduction: Where Water and Energy Meet

Water and energy have always been, are and will be interconnected. If water is needed for generating electricity in hydropower plants and steam turbines of thermal power plants, as well as for use in the cooling systems of power plants, then electricity is needed to pump water from underground sources, to pump water to high buildings for drinking needs, to high-altitude fields for irrigation, as well as for water treatment and desalination systems.

The countries of Central and South Asia are rich in water and energy resources. Ensuring the necessary water and energy equation is extremely important for their further development. Moreover, this applies not only to the development of each of them separately, but also to their joint development, because the main rivers of these countries are transboundary and use by one country may impact others. At the same time, energy resources are also unevenly located and close cooperation among countries is needed to meet energy needs.

An example of this situation is the Aral Sea basin, covering the territories of Central Asian countries and, within the Amu Darya river basin, northern Afghanistan. The majority of the water resources in this basin have their origin in the territory of two upstream countries: Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (more than 80%) and partially in Afghanistan; however, their main users are the downstream countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan (more than 80%) (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1 Formation and use of surface waters in the Aral Sea Basin (SIC ICWC 1996; SIC ICWC 2019)

Meanwhile, the fossil fuel resources in this region are also unevenly distributed. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan do not have significant oil and gas resources and their coal resources are located in high mountain areas, which makes their extraction difficult and expensive. At the same time, rich water resources and convenient geographical conditions provide them with the opportunity to use water to generate hydroelectric power. Downstream countries (i.e., Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) have large oil and gas reserves, which are the main source of energy generation in these countries. Consequently, the share of hydropower in the total electricity generation in downstream countries is very low (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2 Structure of electricity production in Central Asian countries in 2018, including hydropower

If water and energy resources are sufficient to meet the needs of the population and the economy of the region, as it seems, this should not cause any concern. However, the problem lies in the different interests of the upstream and downstream countries. Thus, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, lacking large reserves of fossil energy, need to accumulate water and use it in the autumn-winter period, when electricity demand is high. At the same time, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are interested in the maximum use of water resources in the summer for irrigated agriculture.

During the Soviet period, when all these countries were united, there was a scheme, according to which downstream countries provided energy upstream during winter, while upstream countries stockpiled water and released it during summer to meet the needs of irrigation downstream. Unfortunately, this practice ceased to exist after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when these countries became independent and began to advance policies based on national interests. This policy basically consisted in the principle of self-sufficiency and independence from each other, which disrupted the water and energy balance.

Unfortunately, all countries involved pay the consequences of such policy. In 2006, the region’s losses from inefficient cooperation in water resources management accounted for USD 1.75 billion in lost agricultural yields or 3.6% of GDP (UNDP 2005). By 2017, this cost had gone up to an estimated USD 4.59 billion per year (Pohl et al. 2017).

Meanwhile, the benefits of regional cooperation only in the field of water and energy cooperation are enormous. In 2006, the annual economic benefits of cooperation were estimated at 5% of regional GDP (UNDP 2005).

The Central Asian region so far uses only about 10% of its existing cost-effective hydropower potential and the share of hydropower in the total electricity generation in the region is just over 21%. Meanwhile, Tajikistan alone has a hydropower potential estimated at 527 billion kWh (Abdullaeva et al. 1965), which is 2.3 times higher than the current needs of the countries of the region. And today this potential is used only by 4–5%, which indicates the huge potential for further development, which could contribute to a comprehensive solution to many current and future problems in the region (Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan 2016).

First of all, it is the production of relatively inexpensive and overall environmentally friendly electricity, which could cover the growing demands not only of Tajikistan, which recurrently faces acute shortage of energy in wintertime, but also of neighboring countries. In total, two million households in the region experience heating and electricity shortages in winter (World Bank 2016a). Second, the construction of reservoirs for hydropower plants allows improved regulation of river flows over several years and seasonally, which will ensure water security and water supply for irrigation in all Central Asian countries in dry years. Third, the generation of inexpensive hydropower would save oil, natural gas, and coal reserves, which are intensively used by some countries in the region to generate electricity. Thus, hydropower contributes to a significant reduction of CO₂ emissions in the region. Thus, development of hydropower is consistent with the need for a transition to renewable energy, which is a target of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”. Finally, reservoirs of hydropower plants contribute to the prevention of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena such as drought, floods, and mudflows, which annually cause huge economic damage to almost all countries in the region.

Thus, timely and joint efforts would allow the countries of the region to combat today’s challenges and find ways to solve existing and emerging problems. Regional approaches to the use of water and energy resources in Central Asia would also contribute to greater efficiency, water security, and economic growth, improving the welfare of the population and achieving sustainable development.

2 The Significance of the Rogun Hydropower Plant for Central Asia

An example of the importance of water and energy for the region is the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant (HPP) in Tajikistan. The potential benefits from the construction of the Rogun HPP for the region will be USD 1.48 billion (Pohl et al. 2017).

After completion, the Rogun HPP will be the biggest HPP in Central Asia, with a total capacity of 3600 MW. The average annual electricity generation of the HPP will be more than 17.0 billion kWh per year. The dam of the Rogun HPP will be the tallest rockfill dam in the world, with a height of 335 m. It will form the Rogun reservoir, with a total volume of 13.3 km³ and a useful volume of 10.3 km³.

The construction of the Rogun HPP began in 1976; however, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the project was suspended. In 2007, the Government of Tajikistan restarted the project. The Rogun HPP is planned to be used as a multi-purpose dam, including generating electricity, regulating water for purposes such as irrigation and environmental protection, reducing the risk of dangerous floods and mitigating droughts.

The Rogun HPP will be the biggest producer of clean energy in Central Asia and the surrounding regions. The affordable, environmentally friendly, and renewable energy produced will fully satisfy Tajikistan’s electricity demand and will increase the country’s export of electricity to neighboring countries, which mostly use fossil fuels to produce electricity and cover the needs of their own economy and population.

Hydropower cuts greenhouse gas emissions by reducing the amount of fossil fuel necessary to produce electricity in thermal power plants, and thus CO₂ emissions. To produce the same amount of electricity as Rogun HPP, coal-fired power plants would emit 13.67 million tons of CO₂ per year, while oil-fired ones would emit 9.95 million tons and LNG-powered 6.71 million tons (OSHPC “Barki Tojik” 2014). Thus, Rogun HPP will significantly contribute to reduce CO₂ emissions.

One of the most important features of the Rogun dam is its capacity to manage water resources in a sustainable manner in the context of climate change. Water shortages regularly causes severe problems in dry years, especially in the lower reaches of Central Asian rivers. This situation could worsen in the future with the impact of climate change. Rising temperatures will lead to an increase in evapotranspiration; consequently, higher irregularity in precipitation could lead to an increase in the number of extremely wet and extremely dry years; moreover, earlier snow melt will mean more water in spring and less in summer. In this situation, resource management will be even more important than it is today (OSHPC “Barki Tojik” 2014).

The Rogun dam also planned for adding regulating capacity to the entire system, especially in dry years, by making additional water available under such conditions. Jointly with the Nurek reservoir, whose total volume is of 10.5 km³ and useful capacity 4.5 km³, the Rogun reservoir will provide additional water for irrigation and other needs in dry years. According to the Ministry of Water Resources of the Soviet Union (1987), “for the Amu Darya basin, the commissioning of the Rogun reservoir is of great importance, since starting from 1986 the requirements of water consumers for the Amu Darya River will exceed the capacity of its seasonal regulation in dry years. Therefore, the period of development of the basin’s water resources prior to the commissioning of the Rogun reservoir can be stressful with an unfavorable combination of dry years.” This describes the importance of the speedy completion of the construction of the Rogun reservoir in the Master Plan for the use and protection of the water resources of the Amu Darya. Rogun will provide guaranteed water for irrigation of about 4 million hectares of land in the Amu Darya basin in water scarce and dry years, as well as for the development of more than 300 thousand hectares of new lands for irrigation. So, the Rogun HPP could benefit all downstream water users in the Amu Darya basin.

Rogun HPP with its big reservoir also offers flood control benefits, with positive effects on the entire downstream area. For the last decades, floods and mudflows increased in the magnitude in Central Asia. Adding Rogun to the cascade will reduce risks related to high magnitude floods (e.g., Probable Maximum Floods) and also reduce risks of floods of lower magnitude, but higher probability of occurrence, thus offering the potential to reduce inundation downstream (OSHPC “Barki Tojik” 2014).

Designed to generate electricity and manage water resources, Rogun HPP will also address climate change and a number of climate-related issues such as floods and droughts. It will contribute to both adaptation and mitigation and will also make a valuable contribution to reduction of CO₂ emissions, in line with 2015 Paris Agreement.

In addition to this, producing affordable electricity, Rogun HPP will provide an opportunity to create new industrial enterprises providing jobs and helping to develop economic and social conditions. It will help Tajikistan as well as other neighboring countries to make significant progress to achieve a number of SDGs.

2.1 Connecting Central Asia Hydropower Supply and South Asia Energy Demand

Meanwhile, the Rogun project is a component of the CASA-1000 project, connecting Central and South Asian countries with a 1300 MW high-voltage power transmission line, through which the surplus electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be transmitted to energy-demanding Pakistan and Afghanistan during the summer. This project was initiated by the World Bank and is currently being implemented with power transmission expected to begin in 2024.

An important point in the initiation of this project was that Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have a very large surplus of electricity in the summer period, which is associated with an increase in river flow at this time of the year due to snow and glacier melt. At the same time, the electricity market in Central Asia is limited. Tajikistan alone releases from 3 to 5 billion m³ of water annually through spillways, i.e., without generating electricity, while this water can generate from 2.5 to 4.0 billion kWh of electricity per year.

In the framework of the CASA-1000 project, the total surplus of the two countries was estimated at 6.0 billion kWh per year. At the same time, a 2035 development scenario was also considered. Even in this case, with no generation expansion and an annual increase in demand from 1.6 to 2.6%, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan can export up to 1 billion kWh of electricity per year to Afghanistan and Pakistan (SNC Lavalin 2011). Meanwhile, the electricity shortage in these countries is estimated at 10,000 MW for Pakistan (SNC Lavalin 2011) in 2030 and 3500 MW for Afghanistan in 2032 (Ministry of Energy and Water of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2013).

The Rogun project with an annual output of 17 billion kWh per year is expected to be completed by 2030 and therefore can cover this deficit. Moreover, the first and second units of this station were launched in 2018 and 2019 respectively and the station is already producing electricity. Kyrgyzstan is also building up its potential. The Kambarata-2 HPP is being built with 360 MW capacity. The launch of its second unit is planned for the near future. Investments in new plants is currently sought: Kambar-Ata-1 HPP (1860 MW), Verkhne-Narynsky HPP cascade, etc. (Kyrgyzstan 2018).

Thus, the CASA-1000 project is a key element in the electricity transmission between the countries of Central and South Asia. The countries involved will reap important benefits. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be able to export surplus electricity and receive economic benefits, while Afghanistan and Pakistan will be able to cover their needs with environmentally friendly and affordable electricity. Ultimately, this project will improve the development prospects of both regions.¹

At the same time, the downstream countries, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, will also benefit from this situation. By exporting electricity to the countries of South Asia in the summer, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will use water resources for generation. This is important for downstream countries, since it is during the summer period that water is most needed for irrigation.

Electricity transmission from Central Asia through the CASA-1000 is designed to solve the problems of Afghanistan and Pakistan in the short and medium term, since the needs of these countries are growing rapidly, and the available resources and capacity are insufficient to meet such demand.

2.2 Afghanistan: Water and Energy for Peace

In fact, both countries have their own hydropower potential. In addition to the CASA-1000 project, this potential can help resolve energy supply issues in the long-term period.

For example, Afghanistan has 23,000 MW of hydropower potential, of which only 270 MW is currently utilized, which makes only 1.17% of the available potential.² But in general the total installed generation capacity in Afghanistan is about 520 MW, including 254 MW (49%) from hydropower resources; 200 MW (39%) from thermal sources (furnace oil, diesel, natural gas); and 65 MW (12%) from distributed generators. Imports constitute nearly 80% of the total power balance. This situation persists despite the fact that Afghanistan is among the countries with the lowest in electricity usage per capita in the world, about 100 kWh per year with 30% of its population connected to the grid (ADB 2019). At the same time, the demand for electricity is growing annually. According to the Afghanistan Power Sector Master Plan, the gross demand for the whole of Afghanistan, i.e., the dispatched electricity, will increase in the baseline scenario by 5.7% or 8.7% per annum on average from its current level to 18,400 GWh in 2032. Total peak demand in 2032 is expected to stand at around 3500 MW (Ministry of Energy and Water of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2013).

By developing its hydropower potential, Afghanistan will also be able to improve management of water resources. One of the important directions in this context will be the irrigation of new land. After all, HPP reservoirs provide an opportunity for gravity irrigation, which represents a competitive advantage for agricultural production. On the other hand, affordable electricity will make it possible to irrigate new land using pumping stations, where gravity irrigation is impossible.

The potential area for irrigation in Afghanistan is of 7.9 million hectares. At the end of the 1970s, the irrigated land in the country amounted to 3.3 million hectares, but today only about 2 million hectares remain available (Mahmoodi 2008). Irrigated agriculture makes a worthy contribution to the development of agriculture, which provides up to 50% of the country’s GDP, as well as to employment, with more than 75% of the Afghan population living in rural areas, mainly engaged in agriculture (King and Stürthewagen 2010).

On this basis, the return of land to agriculture to the level of the 1970s, as well as the development of new land in the long term will be important for further economic development and addressing social problems of Afghanistan. In this regard, both the regulating capacities of HPP reservoirs, as well as the HPPs themselves, by generating electricity, will play a crucial role.

The surface water resources of Afghanistan are estimated at 57 billion m³ per year. However, they are unevenly distributed: the Amu Darya river basin covers approximately 15.68% of the total land area but holds about 57% of the water flow; whereas Helmand with 45.35% of area holds only 11% of the water flow. The Kabul river basin in the east of the country covers an area of approximately 13.3% and holds about 26% of the water flow. The northern basin holds 12.26% of the area and drains about 2% of the discharge, while the Harirod-Murghab basin has a coverage area of 13.41% and holds 4% of the discharge (Alim 2006).

From 2008 to 2013, the Afghanistan National Development Strategy (ANDS) had a special focus on water and noted that “certainly, contributions to the Water Sector will remain key to the success of this strategy in particular, and of the ANDS in general” (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2008). Undoubtedly, sustainable management and efficient use of water resources in Afghanistan is important for reducing poverty, ensuring employment, preventing internal and external displacements, as well as ensuring security and political stability.

It should be noted that the majority of Afghanistan’s river basins are transboundary, which highlights the need for cooperation with neighboring countries. Despite this, the only formalized instrument for bilateral or multilateral dialogue on water resources management to date is the agreement on the Helmand River (King and Stürthewagen 2010). Meanwhile, the main water resources of Afghanistan, as mentioned above, are part of the Amu Darya river basin, which also unites Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. These countries are members of the International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (IFAS) and its water commission the Interstate Commission for Water Cooperation (ICWC). Afghanistan has not yet joined this institutional mechanism. The need for increased regional cooperation in the field of water resources is obvious, first to assist Afghanistan’s use and protection of its water resources, without prejudice, and at the same time, the rights of downstream countries (King and Stürthewagen 2010).

One of the important projects for Afghanistan’s water and energy equation is the joint construction of the 4000 MW Dashtijum HPP with Tajikistan on the Pyanj River, which is the main tributary of the Amu Darya River. The annual output of this power plant will be 15.6 billion kWh, which will meet the growing needs of not only Tajikistan and Afghanistan, but also other countries of Central and South Asia. The total volume of its reservoir will be 17.6 billion m³ with a useful volume of 10.2 billion m³, which will ensure, in addition to generating electricity and irrigating lands, effective protection against flooding (Petrov and Akhmedov 2010). According to preliminary estimates, the construction of the Dashtijum HPP will provide 1.5 million hectares of land in the region with irrigation water.³

2.3 Pakistan: Tapping in Energy Deficit with Hydropower Development

Pakistan also has a large hydropower potential. According to Pakistan’s Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), there is 60,000 MW of hydropower potential in the country, of which only 9732 MW or 16.22% has been developed so far. In general, the power capacity of Pakistan today is of 35,924 MW. The share of hydropower accounts for 26.7%; thermal is 63.96%; nuclear is 4.14%; and solar, wind, and bagasse make up 5.2% (NEPRA 2019).

At the same time, Pakistan is currently amid an energy crisis. Some 51 million Pakistanis lack access to electricity, while a further 90 million suffer from unreliable power supply and daily load-shedding. This is having a serious impact on the economy. Over-reliance on imported fuel for thermal generation subject to price fluctuation is at the core of the energy crisis. The government remains under significant pressure to address an annual average power deficit of 4000 MW. Hydropower once underpinned the country’s power sector, accounting for 45% of power generation in 1991. However, this share has dropped to around 28%, as short-term planning preferred thermal power plants. However, hydropower is poised for a resurgence and will play a significant role in addressing this power deficit. The proportion of hydropower in the total electricity generation may increase to more than 40% by 2030.⁴

Nevertheless, the preparatory process of the CASA-1000 project determined that over 90,000 MW of generation capacity will be required by 2030. Even with the existing identified potential plants, there will be about a 10,000 MW deficit in 2030 (SNC Lavalin 2011).

One of the grandiose projects to develop hydropower potential according to the plans of the Government of Pakistan will be Diamer-Bhasha HPP, the construction of which is planned on the Indus River. Upon completion, Diamer-Bhasha Dam would, first, produce 4800 MW of electricity through hydro-power generation; second, store an extra 10.5 billion m³ of water that would be used for irrigation and drinking; third, extend the life of Tarbela Dam, created downstream 35 years ago; and finally, it would control flood damage by the Indus River downstream during high floods.⁵ The live storage capacity of the reservoir will be 7.9 billion m³. It is obvious that the Diamer-Bhasha Dam project will have a multi-purpose impact: generating electricity, regulating water resources, reducing the risk of floods, and controlling sedimentation.

This project will contribute to the regulation of the country's water resources, important in the context of climate change and increased water consumption, especially considering that in terms of water availability, Pakistan is at risk. Over the last six decades, the amount of per capita water resources has decreased from 5300 m³ to 1000 m³, which corresponds to the international definition of water stress (World Bank 2016b). The National Water Policy 2018 estimates the annual water resources of the Indus River system at 170.65 billion m³, which corresponds to 804 m³ per capita, with a population of 212.2 million people in 2018. Pakistan needs to build at least 13 dams having a water storage capacity equivalent to the Kalabagh Dam, whose total capacity is 17.22 billion m³, including 7.52 billion m³ of active capacity (UNDP 2016). It is projected that by 2025, per capita water availability in Pakistan will be reduced to less than 600 m³, which would mean a 32% shortfall, which would in turn result in a food shortage of 70 million tons of crop (Qureshi 2011).

One of the main water consumers in Pakistan is agriculture, which accounts for more than 90% of total water withdrawals. Irrigated agriculture and, consequently, water have always played an important role in the economic development of Pakistan and are likely to continue to do so in the future. Agriculture accounts for around one quarter of the country’s GDP and employs 44% of the labor force. It supports 75% of the population and accounts for 60% of foreign exchange earnings. In Pakistan, agriculture is dependent on irrigation, perhaps more so than anywhere else in the world. Irrigation is used on 80% of all arable land and produces fully 90% of all food and fodder (Pakistan 2008).

However, as with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries, transboundary water cooperation is an important component of water management in Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan is a downstream country in relation to both India and Afghanistan. New plans for the development of water resources in upstream countries will have an impact on Pakistan.

The 1960 Indus Basin Treaty between India and Pakistan regulated the relationship between the two countries over the use of the water resources of the Indus River, but over the last few years serious differences have emerged between Pakistan and India. Neighboring Afghanistan is also conducting feasibility studies to make new dams on the Kabul River, the right tributary of the Indus River with an annual average of 25 billion m³. The short-term possible uses by Afghanistan on the Kabul River would be 10 billion m³. Therefore, starting negotiations with Afghanistan to reach an agreement on water sharing is considered urgent (Qureshi 2011).

2.4 India: Fast Growing Water and Energy Ambitions

The largest country in this region is India. With a population of 1.34 billion inhabitants, India is one of the largest countries and consumers of water and energy in the world. It is among world’s top ten countries with the most renewable freshwater resources and the world’s top ten energy consumers. Having 1869 km³/year renewable freshwater resources, India accounts for about 4% of the world’s freshwater resources. Due to various constraints of topography and uneven distribution over space and time, India uses about 1123 billion m³ or 60.08% of its renewable freshwater (India. Ministry of Water Resources 2019).

The main water consumer in India is agriculture, which in its turn has an important role in the socio-economic development of the country. Agriculture employs 50% of the workforce (Dhawan 2017) and accounts for 15.4% of India’s GDP.⁶ The main contributor to agriculture in India, as in many other countries and regions of the world, is irrigated agriculture. The irrigation area from 12.9 million hectares in 1951 increased to 126.73 million hectares in 2018. The overall irrigation potential of the country is estimated at 139.89 million hectares (India. Ministry of Water Resources 2019). At present, irrigation consumes about 84% of total used freshwater (Dhawan 2017, 13). Since agriculture is the main sector for food security and given that it provides more than 50% of the population’s employment and about 13% of exports,⁷ the Government of India plans to irrigate new lands, which will lead to an increase in water consumption. Many large and medium irrigation projects are being considered or implemented (India. Ministry of Water Resources 2019).

It is expected that the increase of irrigated land will be partially solved through the construction of new reservoirs and the development of hydropower potential. For 2019, the total volume of reservoirs in India was 253 billion m³ and the estimated additional likely live storage available due to projects under construction/consideration is 155 billion m³ (India. Ministry of Water Resources 2019).

Hydropower in India also has great potential, which is estimated at 148,700 MW. The country ranks 5th in the world in this regard.⁸ 134.89 billion kWh of electricity or 10.5% of the total generation (1249.34 billion kWh) was generated at the country's HPPs (India. Ministry of Power 2019a). The capacity of all hydropower plants in India amounted to 45,399 MW or 12.75% of the total capacity of the country's energy system (356,100 MW) (India. Ministry of Power 2019b, 17). By April 2020, the capacity of HPPs increased by 300 MW and amounted to 45,699 MW.⁹

India has ambitious plans to develop its hydropower potential. In 2018, a National Electricity Plan was adopted, according to which at that time the capacity of hydropower schemes under construction was 10,848.5 MW, and the capacity of those that were under consideration and approval by the Central Electricity Authority of the Ministry of Power was 25,160 MW. In general, this Plan envisages bringing the total capacity of India's HPPs to 110,393.3 MW (India. Ministry of Power 2018). Although this document does not indicate a timeframe for implementation, India aims at increasing the installed capacity of non-fossil fuel power plants to 40% by 2030.¹⁰ The development of hydropower will play a key role in this regard, both in terms of increasing capacity and for balancing the energy system. The National Electricity Plan also describes the importance of hydropower development for achieving sustainable development and energy security in India, as well as the development of remote and backward regions of the country (India. Ministry of Power 2018).

The development of water and hydropower resources in India is also related to transboundary issues. The three major river systems of India–Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus–cross international borders. Because India’s unexploited hydropower potential is also mainly along these three river systems, India has several international issues across them¹¹

In addition to the abovementioned 1960 Indus Basin Treaty between India and Pakistan, India signed a number of agreements and memorandums with China, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, which regulate their relationship on various issues, including the exchange of hydrological data, forecasting and flood management, joint research, control and monitoring of water resources, development and implementation of joint multi-purpose projects, and allocation and management of water resources. In the cases of Nepal and Bangladesh, the India-Nepal Joint Committee on Water Resources and Indo-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission were also established (India. Ministry of Water Resources 2019).

One of the key projects of such cooperation is the Saptakosi High Dam Multipurpose Project, which aims at building a 269 m high dam, a HPP with a capacity of 3000 MW, and at irrigating 1.522 million hectares of new lands. The field investigation for preparation of the Detail Project Report (DPR) is still under progress. India and Nepal also jointly undertook investigations and studies and prepared a DPR for the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project with a capacity of 6480 MW and a dam height of 315 m. The total volume of its reservoir will be 12.26 billion m³, while the useful volume will be of 6.56 billion m³,¹² which will allow irrigation of about 430 thousand hectares of new land,¹³ as well as to manage the flow and reduce the risks of flood from the Karnali and Mohan rivers.

Indeed, such multi-purpose projects can bring great benefits in terms of generating electricity, irrigating new lands, and regulating water flow thus reducing the risk of flood. Another feature of these projects is their contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, which could be very high if the same amounts of electricity were produced using fuel resources. However, both of these projects and other plans for the development of water and hydropower resources are progressing with difficulty. Well-established transboundary cooperation would help and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in these countries.

3 Conclusion: Future Challenges to the Water and Energy Equation

The above analysis of the situation in the countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India) shows how closely interconnected water and energy are and how many benefits their balanced use can bring. Meanwhile, the above examples prove once again that mutually beneficial international cooperation is one of the key factors in the development of water and hydropower resources due to the transboundary nature of many rivers, as well as the regional dimension of many energy markets.

However, there are other challenges that impact both the current situation and future development, among which the most important are climate change and population growth. While climate change leads inter alia to an increase in temperature, change in the hydrological cycle, increase in droughts, and other hydrometeorological phenomena, a reduction of river flow, as well as, at these latitudes, an increase in the use of electricity, population growth will lead to an increase in demand for water, food, energy, and other vital necessities, including employment. Moreover, the countries of Central and South Asia are considered highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and have high rates of population growth.

Until the 2000s population growth in the countries of Central Asia, as well as India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan was even higher. For example, during the Soviet Union period, the annual population growth of the countries of Central Asia was more than 3%, which stabilized at about 2% by 2000.¹⁴

Population growth in the region will probably continue in the future. It is expected that the population of Central Asian countries will reach 83.8 million by 2030 and 100.25 million by 2050. In the same timeframe, Afghanistan is expected to reach 48.1 and 64.7 million; Pakistan 262.96 and 338.01 million; India, 1.50 and 1.64 billion, respectively.¹⁵ According to these estimates, India will surpass China in terms of population by 2027.

Regarding the impact of climate change, the average air temperature in the region has already increased by 0.5 °C and, by 2030–2050, will reach 1.6–2.6 °C respectively (World Bank 2009). Obviously, this situation will increase the melting of glaciers, which are the main source of river runoff in the region. Over the past 50–60 years, the Tien Shan and Pamirs glaciers in Central Asia shrank from 6 to 40% in both volume and surface (UNEP 2017).

During the second half of the twentieth century the glacial resources of Central Asia decreased by more than three times and continue to decline with an average intensity of about 0.6–0.8% per year in terms of surface and about 0.1% in volume (Seversky and Tokmagambetov 2004). So far, this trend has not led to a significant change in river flow. A comparison of data for the period of 2001–2018 showed a runoff reduction in the Amu Darya basin by 0.51 km³ and in the Syr Darya basin by 0.9 km³. As a whole, in the Aral Sea basin, the runoff reduction amounted to 1.41 km³ or 1.2% (SIC ICWC 2019). However, the available estimates show that “harsh” climate scenarios, such as doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the flow of the Syr Darya river can drop from 15 to 30%, while the Amu Darya would observe a reduction from 21 to 40% (Chub 2000, 2007; Sorokin 2016; SIC ICWC 2019). The milder scenarios, however, predict a reduction in the river flow in the range of 6–10% for the Syr Darya and 10–15% for the Amu Darya by 2050 (EDB 2009).

According to the various scenarios, the river flow is expected to decrease in the mid- and long-term. Taking into account population growth, the availability of water resources, irrigated land, and hydropower per capita will gradually decrease. This is clearly seen in the case of Central Asia, where over the past 40 years the annual water supply per capita dropped from 8.4 thousand m³ to 2.5 thousand m³. At current rates of population growth, it is expected to reach the critical value of 1.7 thousand m³ by 2025. By 2040 the region will become completely water-scarce, reaching a water availability of 1.0 thousand m³ per capita (Fig. 4.1). Moreover, it will still be necessary to annually provide an additional 500–700 million m³ of water to sustain the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption (World Bank 2016b).

Fig. 4.1

Change of water availability in Central AsiaFootnote

Redrawn from World Bank (2016b) (data: EC IFAS).

The same situation is observed in the countries of South Asia. For example, the water availability (surface water) per capita in India at the time of its independence (1947) was more than 5000 m³/person per year and it is expected that by 2025 this figure will drop to 1500 m³/person, which is more than three times less (Chatterjee 2002). In Pakistan, this indicator decreased from 5260 m³/person in 1951 to 1000 m³/person in 2016. By 2025, it is expected to drop to 860 m³/person, which is 5.8 times less (Pakistan 2018). This moves Pakistan from water stressed into water scarce country. In Afghanistan, water availability per capita decreased from 5042 m³/person in 1962 to 1412 m³/person in 2014. By 2025, this indicator is expected to reach 1105 m³/person, which is 4.5 times less (Lal et al. 2011).

Population growth will lead to an increase in the demand for food, one of the main suppliers of which is agriculture, including irrigated agriculture. Accordingly, the irrigated area per capita will also play an important role in this context. In the 1960s, this indicator in Central Asia was 0.32 ha/person, while today it has reached 0.14 ha/person, which is 2.3 times less.¹⁷ The same phenomenon can be observed in South Asian countries. This indicator will keep dropping because of high population growth and the need for large financial resources for the cultivation and, where required, irrigation of new land.

However, advanced water and energy-saving technologies, new irrigation methods, as well as other achievements in the agriculture sector, due to the progressive development of science and technology, including the introduction of new adaptive, resilient, and high-yielding plants, provide the opportunity to achieve the desired results with less energy, water, and land to compensate. Thus, countries must focus on the efficient use of energy, water, and land resources, as well as increase the productivity of their use relying on new technologies and innovative techniques.

Thus, the above analysis shows that ensuring the water-energy equation in the countries of Central and South Asia under the impact of current challenges, including the increasing demand for water, energy, and food, is one of the key tasks for achieving sustainable development. The solution to this equation, considering the transboundary nature of many rivers, as well as the need for electricity export/import, transportation of necessary material and equipment for infrastructure development, as well as minimizing negative environmental and social impact, requires well-established cooperation between neighboring countries, which ultimately leads to a win-win situation for all parties.

The main objective of this analysis was to demonstrate the existing interdependency between water and energy in these countries. Water is the basis of life, and that energy is the basis of development. This means a lot. However, they are also directly involved in solving social problems and promoting economic development, contributing to the efforts of countries to achieve sustainable development.

The events of the first half of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic swept the whole world, once again put issues of sanitation and hygiene, which are closely interconnected with water, at the top of agendas. The ongoing changes in economic activity will have a direct impact on the energy sector. The expected shocks and changes in the world in connection with COVID-19 will be a great test for many countries, including the countries of Central and South Asia. Ensuring the water and energy equation certainly is of great support for these countries in this difficult period.