I would like to thank the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei and the National Academy of Sciences for inviting us to this Conference in beautiful Rome and for their generous hospitability. This is my first participation in Amalfi Conferences, and it is a privilege to be among such distinguished academic colleagues.

The Middle East is one of the most volatile regions of the world. The stability of the ME can contribute to peace and security throughout the world, and its conflicts and wars would be a source of tension and threat to other regions.

The costs of civil wars, social unrest and violence in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, and other ME countries have been horrendous. Counting the dead, wounded, internally displaced, refugees and the destruction of infrastructure and economy, one can see that the region has suffered the worst human disaster after the world wars. How did we get here and where are we heading to?!

The modern Middle East, as we know it, was shaped from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire by the victorious powers of the First World War. The colonial powers not only created boundaries that served their interests, but they also handed power to tribal chieftains and ex-Ottoman officers that had collaborated with them. Although these countries gained nominal independence some years later, they failed to make transition to political systems of representative governance.

All the Arab states, except Lebanon, were ruled by either military dictatorships or autocratic monarchies. It is true that significant advances were made in these countries: economically, socially, and educationally, but these were not accompanied by reforms of the political systems or observance of basic human rights for their citizens. Furthermore, the economic development was characterized by rampant corruption where ruling families helped themselves to the national wealth with little consideration for the needs of their people.

By 2010, millions of Arabs would no longer tolerate the incompetence and corruption characterizing their governments and state institutions. The Arab spring that followed saw masses rise against oppression refusing to live in submission to corrupt leaders or accept dictatorships; neither they were content with a global political discourse that allows democracies in the West to support oppressive regimes at home. Some of these regimes may seem to have a firm grip on power today, but I do not believe they will be immune from changes to come in one way or another.

Another cause of instability and tension in the region is the inter-regional rivalries and mingling in the affairs of neighbouring countries. Rather than focusing on solutions to their own internal problems, some governments find it convenient to distract their people with engagements outside their territories, and others endeavour to assume a greater role for themselves by supporting warring factions in other countries.

This is how we got here; so where are we heading to? Can peace and social tranquillity be restored, or will the region continue to be a source of instability and human suffering that threatens world peace and security? What reforms are needed internally and cooperation externally to help the countries of the region to be part of a peaceful collaborative world order rather than a source of tension, terrorism, and refugees?

No effort to restore tranquillity in the Middle East will succeed in my opinion if the states in the region will not reform. Without such reform, social unrest, turmoil, riots, and even civil wars such as those that we experienced since 2011 will continue to pop up with varying degrees of violence.

The first of these necessary reforms is political liberalisation and respect for human rights. Political liberalization to improve governance accountability should not be considered as potentially destabilizing; quite to the contrary in the long-term, it is the only guarantee for stability, progress, and social justice.

The West often saw authoritarian regimes as guarantors of stability. It allowed itself in the name of security and the fight against terrorism to support such regimes and turn a blind eye to human rights abuses. They conveniently chose to ignore that extremist ideologies were born and nourished by some of these countries and most of the funding that the terrorist organisations received came from there.

Democratisation of political systems and allowing the population to freely participate in electing their representatives is much overdue in many countries in the region, and without participatory democracy, the political system would lack legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens.

It is true that different regions of the world with diverse cultures may have different concepts of representative democracy and may follow different routes to achieve it. But there are basic principles such as free speech, freedom of peaceful assembly, freedom of religion, equality between men and women, equality under the law, respect and protection of minorities, and the right to choose your leaders are common to all societies.

We all share responsibility to uphold the same standards of universal human rights and to stand by those who strife for them wherever they are. The worse betrayal, in my opinion, is when we apply double standards and support a popular uprising in one country in the name of freedom and human rights and turn a blind eye and deaf ears when another regime violates those human rights not only among its own population but also commits war crimes against other countries and people in the name of security. There is a deep feeling among Arab masses that the West and especially the U.S. cannot be counted upon as a reliable supporter of democracy unless it serves their political and economic interests.

Another cause of instability in the region is the unconditional support that Israel receives from the West, particularly the United States, in pursuing its oppressive policies against the Palestinian people. The utter disregard for the Palestinian national aspirations and their unquestionable rights in their homeland would only pour fuel on an already inflammable situation. Without international cooperation and commitment to peace and justice, it would not be possible to reach a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian question.

This puts the United Nations and particularly the EU to face their responsibility in maintaining peace and order by salvaging the peace process by implementing the UN resolutions on the right of the Palestinian people to establish their own state and live in peace and dignity in their homeland with an internationally recognised boundary. Palestine would remain the central issue for the Arab people despite what some of their rulers may say or do; and without a just settlement, the region would not enjoy peace and security.

Another conflict that has caused unimaginable suffering is the Yemen war. According to the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, to the Security Council on 14 December 2021 “Yemen has been facing a protracted political, humanitarian, and developmental crisis since uprisings broke out in 2011. With 80 per cent of the population, or 24.1 million people, in need of humanitarian aid and protection, it is now the largest humanitarian crisis in the world.”

Indeed, it is the worst humanitarian disaster after the Second World War. It has left almost a quarter of a million people dead, and 2.3 million children are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2022. Four hundred thousand children under the age of five are “in their last weeks and months of life” according to the UN’s humanitarian report. Civilians were targeted by airstrikes and shelling in their homes, schools, mosques, hospitals, markets, and other places where civilians should be protected. Yemen has become a protracted crisis, with an entire generation of children growing up having known nothing but war.

In preparing this paper, I pondered that a viable way to put an end to this war is for the UN to work out a road map that includes the following points:

  • Nationwide ceasefire including cessation of airstrikes by the Arab coalition,

  • Lifting of restrictions on goods entering the largest Yemeni port, Hodeida, which is the humanitarian lifeline to the majority of the people of Yemen; and resuming commercial flights to the capital Sanaa’s airport, which has been prevented for four years,

  • Holding a national reconciliation conference where all belligerent and non-combatant parties in Yemen take part to form a government of national unity that can draft a new constitution and hold elections that would lead to a democratically elected government.

It is a very welcome development that the UN Special envoy to Yemen succeeded to get the warring parties to accept halting all air, ground, and naval military operations inside Yemen and across its borders beginning with the start of the Holy month of Ramadan a few days ago. They also agreed for fuel ships to enter Hodeida port and commercial flights to operate in and out of Sana’a airport. These are the first of the two points of the roadmap I just mentioned. Hopefully, the ceasefire will extend beyond the two months that has been agreed upon and the national reconciliation conference will follow soon.

I would like now to turn to the situation in Syria and Iraq. The Syrian civil war started in Feb 2011 as part of the Arab Spring uprising where people demanded freedom, social justice, and political reforms. But the initial peaceful demonstration quickly turned into violent clashes between government security units that used excessive force and the demonstrators. Shortly after the eruption of the conflict, extremist Jihadi groups from outside Syria poured into the country to support the demonstrators.

One of these extremist groups declared itself ‘The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)’ better known in the region as ‘Daesh’. The group soon became the dominant fighting force among the opposition. Having established their terrorist state in central Syria, they overrun north-western Iraq in June 2014 capturing one-third of the country and ruling over 40% of the population including Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul. Horrendous atrocities were committed against civilians under their control, particularly the Shias, Christians, and Yazidis.

Despite internal turmoil, Iraqis quickly responded to the call of their religious leader Ayatollah Sistani and organised themselves in Popular Mobilisation Units to defend their country against Daesh. Mosul and other towns and areas were liberated, and the country was cleared of Daesh terrorists by end of 2017 at terrible costs. The number of civilian casualties in this war was more than 34,000, and the Iraqi armed forces lost about 15,000 soldiers. In contrast, 29,000 Daesh terrorists were eliminated, about half of them Iraqis and the other half of different nationalities, mostly Syrians, Saudis, and North Africans. Terrorists also joined them from other parts of the world, particularly from Western Europe and Central Asia.

In Syria, various opposition groups controlled most towns and rural areas outside Damascus at the peak of the civil war in 2015 including Syria’s largest city of Aleppo. The civil war in Syria drew in several outside actors supporting the warring sides. Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah actively supported government forces while Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the US, and some EU countries funded or armed various opposition factions.

Presently, the opposition controls the north-western province of Idlib, the SDF (a Kurdish rebel group sympathetic to PKK in Turkey) controls the north-eastern province of Hasaka, and the rest of the country is under government control. The opposition in the Idlib province is overtly supported militarily and financially by Turkey and some Gulf countries even though the largest armed group in that pocket is the Al Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusra group. It is no surprise that Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and his successor Abu Omar were both located there and eliminated by US air operations.

It is estimated that between 500 to 600 thousand Syrians have lost their lives in this civil war, in addition to 6.7 million internally displaced people and 6.6 million refugees. That is in total about half of the population.

The Syrian civil war had a rippling impact on the Middle East and in a way spilt over into Europe. It caused the largest humanitarian crisis since World War II (only to be surpassed in 2018 by the Yemen war). Millions of refugees poured into neighbouring countries as well as into Europe.

The Syrian war like all other wars will have to come to an end one day. The sooner we get there, the less human suffering and destruction. What can be done to help end this war?

Sanctions have not diminished the will of the warring parties to fight, but only impacted the livelihood of millions of Syrians. International humanitarian relief efforts have had a limited effect in alleviating the suffering of the Syrian people. For such humanitarian efforts to be effective, they should not be politically manipulated. They should be delivered cross-line to all Syrians affected by the war in line with UNSC Resolution 2585 (2021).

There is no alternative to advancing a settlement process. This process should be led by the Syrians and supported by the United Nations. No resolution of the crisis is expected without an immediate ceasefire, release of detainees, safe and dignified return of refugees and inclusive political reform. Of course, preserving Syria’s territorial integrity and unity is essential to a sustainable solution.

It is a welcome development that the seventh session of the Constitutional Committee which comprises the Syrian government and opposition representatives in addition to civil society groups was convened in Geneva last month under the UN auspices. All concerned parties including the UN, EU, and Arab League countries in addition to Russia, Iran and Turkey should exert all efforts to encourage the Syrians to agree on a peaceful transition to a constitutional process that allows them to live together in peace and build their future together.

Lastly, I would like to review the latest developments in the Libyan civil war. The civil unrest in this oil-rich country during the 2011 Arab uprising brought down the dictatorial regime of Moammar Al Qaddafi. But instead of setting up a transitional government to hold elections for a National Assembly that represent all the Libyan political spectra to draft a new constitution, the country was split between warring factions in the east and the west.

The conflict quickly turned into a proxy war fuelled by rival foreign powers. The main warring factions are the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyans National Army (LNA), a force of some twenty-five thousand fighters led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar based in Benghazi.

The GNA receives financial and military aid from Turkey, Italy, and Qatar. Turkey has sent a couple of thousands of Syrian militants from Idlib to fight with GNA forces. On the opposite side, the LNA’s backers include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Russia and France. Egypt and the UAE provide military and financial support to the LNA, while Russia has sent Wagner Group mercenaries to fight with them.

The UN asked all nations to refrain from sending arms to the warring factions in Libya and called for an embargo on arms shipment, and the EU launched operations in the Mediterranean Sea to monitor the arms embargo. However, this action does little to halt arms across land borders. The UN Sanctions Committee report from March last year found that all Libyan parties as well as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, and Turkey had violated the arms embargo.

After exhaustive efforts by the UN, a ceasefire agreement between GNA and LNA was agreed upon in October 2020 that stipulated the departure of all foreign fighters from the country. Also, political talks involving 75 Libyan stakeholders were organised by the UN that culminated in the nomination of a Government of National Unity (GNU) to replace the GNA and the Interim Government in eastern Libya. Presidential and parliamentary elections were to be held in Dec 2021 and Feb 2022, respectively.

The transfer of power to a new interim Government of National Unity raised hopes for peace and the reunification of the country and its institutions. However, a new power struggle has erupted threatening further instability, including the return of parallel administrations and the risk of an armed confrontation.

Rosemary DiCarlo, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs warned “Libya is now facing a new phase of political polarization, which risks dividing its institutions once again and reversing the gains achieved over the past two years.” As a result of these unfortunate developments, the elections were once again postponed.

Libya is facing economic collapse, political instability, and ongoing conflict between warring factions, and it remains Africa’s main departure point for migrants seeking safety and opportunity in Europe.

The country is at a critical point on its path to peaceful resolution of its internal strife. A stable unified Libya can only come via ballot not bullet. Regional intruders who have supported and armed various waring groups should cease indulging in Libyan affairs and leave the Libyans to resolve their political differences and decide their future. The UN should intensify its efforts to implement the 2021 Agreement between the warring parties and proceed with the presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible to form an inclusive government of national unity.

This has been an expose’ to my uptake of the roots of conflicts in the Middle East and possible road maps to find an outlet from the quagmire that many nations in the region find themselves caught in.

Thank you.