Keywords

1 Introduction

According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment [1], (hereafter MEA), drivers of change are anthropogenic factors that directly or indirectly cause alterations in ecosystems. MEA [1] divided them into direct and indirect drivers; the difference is that the former directly influence ecosystem processes, while the latter operate in an underlying manner by altering one or more direct drivers [2, 3]. These drivers, and actions to mitigate their impacts, have been recognized and formalized in multilateral agreements, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. A key objective of these agreements is to identify baselines and trends in drivers [4, 5].

Direct drivers include energy use, introduction of invasive species [6, 7], greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, land use/land cover change, and extraction of renewable (e.g. fisheries) and non-renewable (e.g. mining) natural resources. Indirect drivers include population growth, climate change, land use/land cover change, and economic growth, technological change, socio-political factors, culture, and religion [5, 1].

In most cases, ecosystem changes occur through interactions among multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales (e.g. [2]). The effect of interactions between drivers depends on a variety of context-specific factors (e.g. [8]). Ecosystem changes also interact with drivers in complex ways [1, 5]. Altered ecosystems create new opportunities and constraints on land use, induce institutional changes in response to degradation and resource scarcity, and result in social effects such as changes in income inequality [9]. For example, the filling of wetlands for urbanization brings with it the opportunity to build new housing, but also generates significant negative impacts on ecosystem services, which has led countries to implement incentive policies for their protection and restoration [10]. Finally, capitalism is the origin of all drivers and impacts. The second contradiction of capitalism posits that as a political-economic system, it relies on expropriation and exploitation on an ever-increasing scale, creating social inequalities and environmental degradation [11–13]. Indeed, recent research indicates that these drivers are increasing, causing ecosystem destruction at unprecedented rates across natural systems [14, 15]. Despite extensive efforts to predict the trajectories of drivers and assess their impacts (e.g. [1, 5, 16, 17]), there has been no synthesis of the status of current research on drivers, particularly in developing countries.

Although there is information on the temporal dynamics of variables that could be considered drivers of change for Chilean Patagonia, there are practically no studies linking these drivers to ecosystem changes. The drivers most analyzed are direct drivers, including land use change. In contrast, very few studies have explored the effects of indirect drivers, which is at least partially due to the limited availability of spatio-temporal data. Probably the most complete information on the dynamics of environmental change drivers available for Chile is contained in the country Environmental Performance Assessments (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) [18]; in Spanish ECLAC and OECD) and in the Ministry of the Environment, 2019 (in Spanish Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, MMA).

2 Scope and Objectives

This chapter focuses on analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of direct and indirect drivers of ecosystem change in Chilean Patagonia. The direct drivers include the degradation and loss of native forests, the expansion of mining, tourism, energy generation, agriculture and livestock, and fishing and aquaculture. Indirect drivers include demographic dynamics, economic growth, and institutional factors.

3 Methods

The region known as Chilean Patagonia is located at the southern tip of the American continent (41° 42′ S, 73° 02′ W–56° 29′ S, 68° 44°). It has 456,225 inhabitants (2.7% of the population of Chile, National Institute of Statistics, 2017, (in Spanish INE) and an area of 280,000 km2 (37% of the area of continental Chile). The study area comprises 34 municipalities, 85% of which are below the average poverty rate measured by income at the municipal level (based on the Ministry of Social Development [19]; in Spanish Ministerio de Desarrollo Social, MDS) and 53% belonged to the hundred municipalities with the highest isolation index in 2011 (Under-secretary of Regional Development [20]; in Spanish Subsecretaría de Desarrollo Regional).

3.1 Identification of Drivers of Change in the Ecosystems of Chilean Patagonia

The MEA [1] framework was used for the analysis of drivers which is considered the most appropriate for social-ecological studies, as it provides a more flexible definition and analysis of drivers of change. A panel of biodiversity experts of the MMA analyzed conservation strategies for the Patagonia (https://biodiversidad.mma.gob.cl/), in order to identify the environmental problems that generate relevant pressures on biodiversity. These problems were associated with drivers and then indicators were selected for evaluation (Table 1). The indicators were chosen on the basis of the following criteria: existence of data, geographic coverage, reliability of sources, consistency with the driver, and accessibility of the data.

Table 1 List of drivers and sources of available information
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3.2 Definition of the Scale of Work

The municipalities were selected as administrative units of analysis; however, the rivers were studied at three scales, depending on the characteristics of the spatial information available: (i) territorial (Chilean Patagonia); (ii) administrative region; (iii) municipal. Following Tzanopoulos et al. [26], a method was used that guarantees comparability between administrative levels and the proposed indicators, so as to be able to represent the drivers of change numerically. The method proposed by these authors consists of assessing the change in two key variables at the different scales analyzed: (i) change in driver intensity: (ii) change in uniformity. Intensity measures whether the values of an indicator are over or under-represented within the scales of analysis. This was evaluated based on the relative change of the median of an indicator at the scale of region, compared to the scale of municipality. A negative value represents an over-representation of low values for the indicator, while a positive value expresses an over-representation of high values.

Uniformity is an average of similarity between the values of the indicator for different municipalities within the regions, within the study area and ranges from 0 to 1, being 1 the greatest uniformity. The Shannon uniformity index [27], derived from Shannon’s diversity index, was used to measure uniformity. This index measures the homogeneity of the spatial distribution of the indicator values among the municipalities, taking into consideration the value for the region and territory [26]; also see [28].

3.3 Data Collection

An exhaustive review of existing literature and technical documents was carried out to compile a list of drivers affecting the biodiversity of the Chilean Patagonian territory (Table 1), and together with experts, indicators were identified to evaluate the trend of each driver. The review included papers published in scientific journals, databases, and government reports. Based on the information collected, a temporal database was constructed by municipality.

3.4 Trends in Drivers of Ecosystem Change

The time trend of the indicators for each selected variable was analyzed by projecting the variables over time. The variables selected to represent each indicator and their trends were spatialized with geographic information systems. For indicators that had more than one variable and whose prospection was not homogeneous in time and space, a multi-criteria analysis was carried out to define the future areas of concentration of the driver. Weights were established for the variables based on expert criteria and according to the importance indicated in the literature. Table 2 shows the type of projection made according to each indicator.

Table 2 Chilean Patagonia. Type of projection according to indicator
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3.5 Development of a Municipal Typology of Exposure to Drivers of Change

A typology of municipalities was developed according to the magnitude of the different types of indicators, for which a cluster analysis was used to group municipalities that showed similar patterns in the magnitude of the indicators. Cluster analysis is a quantitative statistical method that uses unsupervised learning to explore, find, and classify characteristics, and to obtain information about the nature or structure of the data [29]. This study was conducted on group analysis units with similar behavior, based on combinations of indicators. The analysis used was non-hierarchical and based on the centroid method (squared Euclidean distance), which ensures that the distance between observations in the same cluster is smaller than the distance between observations belonging to different clusters [30, 31].

4 Results

4.1 Degradation and Loss of Native Forests

Forest degradation and conversion are among the most significant transformations of the land surface globally [33]. Its causes are heterogeneous and change over time and from one region to another [34, 35]. Degradation is one of the most significant direct drivers of the loss of remnant native forests in Chile and particularly in the study area, ultimately leading to loss of forest cover [32]. Direct causes include selective logging (legal and illegal), forest fires, overgrazing, and invasive species [36]. Indirect causes have been reported including poverty, inadequate conservation and management policies, institutional weaknesses, and various economic and technological factors [37–39]. The increase in the demand for fuelwood due to population growth has been identified as the main indirect driver in recent decades [38, 40]. To the extent that the rate of fuelwood extraction is greater than the rate of forest recovery [41], there is a serious risk of conservation as long as other cheaper energy sources are not developed.

A photo of a shepherd herding a flock.

Herding sheep in the ex-Estancia Chacabuco, Patagonia National Park, Aysén Región, Photo by Jorge López

The firewood penetration rate in the study area, understood as the percentage of households using firewood for heating, is 94.8% in the Los Lagos Region, 98.2% in the Aysén Region, and 12.7% in the Magallanes Region. Consumption per household fluctuates between 13 m3st (cubic meters in stereo) in the Los Lagos Region, 13.75 m3st in the Aysén Region and 17.5 m3st in the Magallanes Region.

Although firewood constitutes an important income for forest owners, its market is highly informal and therefore the precise numbers of extraction and owners who extract firewood are unknown [38, 42]. For example, it is estimated that 80% of the firewood arriving in the city of Coyhaique comes from forests without management plans [43]. The extraction of firewood without proper management leads to what is called high grading, a practice that involves the removal of the best trees, generating an increasingly impoverished forest, ultimately leading to its loss [44]. Lenga and evergreen forest types are the most affected (National Forestry Corporation [45]; in Spanish Corporación Nacional Forestal, CONAF).

Between 1998 and 2013, a total of 23,370 ha changed from native forest to shrubland or from shrubland to grassland, affecting 0.26% of the total area of native forest in the study area.Footnote 1 This change in coverage is very evident in the Chiloé archipelago, where it represents between 70 and 90% of native forest loss, and in the mountain municipalities of Futaleufú, Hualaihué, and Palena, where it represents 23% of native forest loss. The main cause of this change is firewood extraction [38, 40, 43].

This change is also significant in some municipalities of the Magallanes Region, especially in Porvenir, Primavera, and Timaukel, (reaching 70% of native forest loss), but it is associated with other direct causes, specifically forest fires and destruction by beavers [46].

Based on past rates of native forest degradation, firewood consumption rates, and the distribution of the forest types most affected by firewood and beaver pressures, the projection indicates that the Aysén province (Aysén Region) and Tierra del Fuego province would concentrate the greatest pressures from this driver in the future. In these sectors there is a concentration of areas of standing forest susceptible to firewood harvesting and also affected by beaver damage (Tierra del Fuego Province) (Fig. 1A).

Fig. 1
A, B, C, D, and E are maps of Patagonia that highlight the projection of native forest degradation to 2030, mining projects to 2030, rate of change in tourist visitation to 2030, projection of energy use to 2030, and projection of livestock use intensity to 2030, respectively.

Chilean Patagonia. Projection of direct drivers of ecosystem change to 2030. Panel A, 30-year projection of the driver of degradation and loss of native forest, measured in area (ha); in green smaller areas, in red larger areas. Panel B, 30-year projection of the mining driver, measured in number of projects, in green fewer projects, in red more projects. Panel C, 30-year projection of tourism development driver measured in visitor variation rate, in light blue lower variation rate, in red higher variation rate. Panel D, 30-year projection of energy use driver, measured in hydroelectric potential (kw); in green lower potential, in blue higher potential. Panel E, 30-year projection of livestock intensity driver, measured in animal carrying capacity; in yellow lower carrying capacity, in brown higher carrying capacity

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4.2 Mining Expansion

Mineral extraction in Latin America is part of an extensive history of dispossession and environmental degradation, which has literally produced sacrifice areas, and Chile is no exception [47, 48]. Although the major environmental and social impacts in Chile are mostly located in the Norte Grande, associated with large-scale copper mining, more recently there are cases of conflicts in Chilean Patagonia, of which the conflict in Riesco Island is emblematic [49]. The effects of mining on ecosystems and biodiversity have been well documented and there is extensive literature on the subject [50–52]. The effects are produced mainly by: (i) waste production and sedimentation in water bodies, acid surface and subsurface drainage, and the effects of metal and waste rock deposits; (ii) habitat alteration; (iii) indirect effects associated with work such as roads. Mining projects generally affect biodiversity adversely and irreparably, and the remediation measures contemplated are not always sufficient to recover the flora and fauna present in the areas of impact [53].

Between the years 1998 and 2017, the Chilean Patagonia region produced 7% of the metallic mining production nationally, 4% of non-metallic mining, and 91% of fuel (coal, oil and natural gas) (Comisión Chilena del Cobre [54]; in Spanish COCHILCO).

4.2.1 Metal Mining

Metal mining in the study area is concentrated exclusively in the Aysén Region and mostly focuses on silver extraction (75% of total national metal ore level), zinc (25%), and to a lesser extent gold and lead. This mining takes place almost entirely in mountainous areas and at the headwaters of river basins, producing effects on water bodies, mostly associated with sedimentation and contamination with heavy metals [53].

4.2.2 Non-metal Mining

Non-metal mining is concentrated in the Magallanes Region (99.92% of total non-metal mining in the study area) and includes the extraction of calcium carbonate (55%), limestone (45%) and peat on a very low scale [55]. Peat extraction is in itself an unsustainable activity, similar to topsoil extraction, which has been studied and denounced for its serious consequences for the regional water balance and for the global carbon balance [56]. Effects in the study area such as the arrival of exotic species [57] and the water crisis in Chiloé [58] are reported.

4.2.3 Fuel Extraction

Fuel extraction from the study area takes place entirely in the Magallanes Region, primarily focused on crude oil (20.37%) and coal (79.49%) [54]. During the period 1999–2018, 100% of domestic oil, 88% of coal, and 35% of natural gas came from this region.

Coal exploitation reached 2,256,656 t in 2018, 98% of the national production. The deposits are concentrated in the Brunswick Peninsula, Riesco Island, and Puerto Natales. It is estimated that the probable reserves are 555 million t (Ministry of Energy [59]; in Spanish Ministerio de Energía, ME), whose potential development has already generated socio-environmental conflicts, such as the one that occurred with the Isla Riesco mining project [60]. Given the existing coal reserves in the study area (mostly concentrated in Skyring Sound) and depending on the feasibility of using coal as a raw material for the industrial process of hydrogen production, this driver could become especially important in the future, with consequent impacts on landscape alteration and water pollution [61].

Between 1992 and 2018, 580 mining projects were submitted for environmental assessment (93% of which were approved); only nine of them were submitted via Environmental Impact Assessment whereas the rest was submitted via Declaration of Environmental Impact,Footnote 2 without citizen participation or proposals for mitigation and/or remediation strategies. This situation is particularly serious given that 33 of the projects presented via Declaration of Environmental Impact were for hydraulic fracturing (fracking) (see Footnote 3). Most of these projects are concentrated in the municipalities of San Gregorio and Primavera, in the Magallanes Region.

Our projection indicates that new mining projects (metal, non-metal, and fuel) will be concentrated by 2030 mainly in the mountain municipalities of the Aysén and Magallanes Regions and especially in the Seno Skyring (Magallanes Region), which coincides with areas proposed for conservation in the regional biodiversity conservation strategies (Fig. 1B), which could lead to potential territorial conflicts within a decade.

4.3 Tourism Expansion

Tourism is an important source of income generation in developing countries. However, it has also been associated with numerous adverse environmental consequences, such as vehicular congestion, air pollution, solid waste, and water scarcity, especially during months of high tourist flow [62].

There are twelve tourist destinations identified in the study area (Ministry of Public Works [63]; in Spanish Ministerio de Obras Públicas, MOP), related to the presence of tourist attractions such as parks and reserves. One third of these are consolidated destinations, 50% are emerging, and 16.6% are potential. Tourist arrivals in Chilean Patagonia reached 722,028 people in 2016, equivalent to 7.5% of tourist arrivals in the country; most were domestic tourists (62.7%) and 37.3% were foreigners, a pattern analogous to the national pattern. 49% of arrivals in 2016 occurred between the months of November and February, marking a summer seasonality pattern.Footnote 3 The average variation rate with respect to the 2015 period was 12%, highlighting the destinations of Antarctica, King George Island, Cape Horn, Puerto Eden, and Tierra del Fuego. However, the Chiloé Archipelago and Carretera Austral-Parque Nacional Queulat destinations had a negative variation. It should be noted that the population received in the month with the highest tourist concentration in the region (February) is equivalent to 48% of the total population of the study area estimated in 2017 [64]. None of the existing municipal planning (regulatory plans, waste management plans, etc.) incorporates this floating population in its basic services, which results in a low capacity to receive and manage tourists, producing impacts on ecosystems [63]. Between the years 2000 and 2018, 2,107 forest fires occurred in the study area, mostly associated with recreational activities and the transit of people, vehicles, and aircrafts, which affected an area of 65,428 ha.Footnote 4 On average, 58% of the burned vegetation was scrubland and native forest.

The trends in tourist arrivals to destinations and the projections made by the National Tourism Service for new tourist routes and destinations (emerging destinations) project an increase in tourist pressure in the tourist destinations of Cape Horn and Tierra del Fuego (municipalities of Punta Arenas, Porvenir, Timaukel, and Cape Horn) and to a lesser extent in already consolidated destinations such as the Carretera Austral (municipalities of Chaitén, Futaleufú, Palena, Cisnes, and Lago Verde) (Fig. 1C; also see [65]).

4.4 Expansion of Energy Production

A recent study in Chile shows energy consumption still coupled to GDP, low energy efficiency, and higher end-use export sectors (e.g. mining) [66], and coal use for electricity generation that has increased in absolute terms. Non-conventional renewable energies (NCRE) remain controversial in some cases, including in particular hydroelectric generation [67].

We find the following trends in the energy matrix of the study area: (i) Firewood, an NCRE, is the prevalent energy source for heating purposes in both the Chiloé Archipelago and the Aysén Region. It is estimated that 96% of the population uses this resource as the main source [68]. In the Magallanes Region the main heating source is natural gas (non-renewable) [59]. Firewood extraction is not only a driver of native forest degradation, but also the cause of high levels of particulate matter pollution in the municipalities that consume it [69]. (ii) The Chiloé Archipelago is connected to the central interconnected electricity grid, with eight electrical substations fed by three thermoelectric plants (Quellón I and II, Degañ, and Danisco Biomar), three hydroelectric plants (Colil, Piruquina, and Dongo) and one wind power plant (San Pedro de Dalcahue). As a result, the consumption matrix of the archipelago is highly diversified with a maximum power generation of 267,800 MW.Footnote 5 Thermoelectric power plants have local impacts affecting the quality of life of the surrounding communities, due to the local pollution they produce, which affects the increase in the levels of conflict and social rejection [70]. (iii) Aysén’s electricity matrix system is based on medium-sized and isolated systems, which together have an installed capacity of 67.74 MW, with hydroelectric, diesel thermal, and wind generated sources. There are also two private mining companies, Cerro Bayo and El Toqui, which produce their own electricity, with an installed capacity of 22.38 MW, and an energy project that supplies 1.3 MW to Pesquera Tornagaleones. The region’s installed capacity totals 91.42 MW. (iv) The Magallanes system has a final consumption matrix highly concentrated in natural gas (64.8% of the total). Natural gas represents 94.1% of the fuel used in the consumption matrix for electricity generation (5.6% is Diesel and 0.2% wind energy).

The National Energy Commission [71] indicates a historical energy consumption growth rate of 5.8% for the Aysén Region and 2.6% for the Magallanes Region in electricity and 1.6% for natural gas. The environmental impacts of electricity generation are usually related to the technology used and can be summarized as follows: (i) fragmentation of the landscape,(ii) alteration of lifestyles; (iii) atmospheric emissions; (iv) impact on regional fauna; (v) impact on regional flora; (vi) alteration of flows [72]. It should be noted that the greater inclusion of NCRE in the country is focused towards medium-sized electricity systems located in extreme areas, in order to replace current diesel generation [73, 74]. These regions have increased from 3% NCRE generation to reach the national average, which is around 18% [74].

The energy resources considering renewable sources are outstanding in the study area, especially hydroelectric and wind power, by which the current demand could be amply covered. It should be noted that hydraulic estimates as gross theoretical potential reach 6,876 MW in the study area (all located in the Aysén Region). No less than 13.21% of these are located within national parks and conservation areas. Finally, it is important to note that for marine sources, the gross resource of wave energy is estimated at 47,170 MW, while for tides it is 220 MW. However, the technical resource, i.e. that which is feasible to harness, is estimated to be negligible for waves, and 22 MW for tides, mainly due to the large distances to centers of consumption [74]. Considering these energy resources, projections to 2030 of possible pressures on ecosystems as a result of this driver will be concentrated mainly in the municipalities of Cochrane, O’Higgins, and Aysén (Fig. 1D).

4.5 Expansion of Agriculture and Livestock Farming

The occupation of the Patagonian territory was strongly conditioned by the development of extensive livestock grazing, relying predominantly on sheep, which gradually developed into a few establishments of very large extensions and low population density, which coexisted with numerous small and medium-sized operations [75].

The soil erosion generated by this phenomenon in the past and the current droughts in critical months for fodder production are factors that condition livestock production and at the same time damage a key Patagonian ecosystem, the steppeFootnote 6 (see [76]). This is even more aggravated when 84.6% of the regional surface of Aysén shows severe to moderate desertification and 91.4% of the Magallanes Region is in the same situation [77]. Since its origins, livestock activity also came into conflict with native species, mainly foxes and pumas, as domestic animals became part of the diet of these carnivores, with the consequent economic impact for those who make a living from this activity [78].

The degradation of native forests also leads to the use of degraded forests and scrublands for livestock grazing, without limitations in stocking rates that would allow the systematic recovery of those sectors with adequate conditions for their reversion to the initial forest stages [76, 79]. This has serious effects on biodiversity and landscape conservation.

Although the area dedicated to agriculture and livestock in Chilean Patagonia has been maintained over time, with the incentive of public policies, there has been a conversion to more intensive livestock farming.Footnote 7 In 1997 there was an average of 5% improved pastures in the territory, which increased to 12% in 2007 [80, 81]. Despite the above, there has been a negative variation in the number of sheep, at a much higher rate in the municipalities of the Los Lagos Region and on average higher than the national variation rate. There was a positive variation in bovine herds in Chilean Patagonia, specifically in the regions of Aysén and Magallanes, contrary to the national trend, which may be evidence of a reconversion of the industry, related to the commercial opening of the southern regions of Chile towards China [82].

A study on livestock carrying capacity in the study area shows that in most of the municipalities it would be advisable to reduce it, especially in the Chiloé Archipelago [83]. Our analysis shows that the variations obtained in this driver in the Aysén Region were of lesser magnitude than those obtained in the municipalities of the Los Lagos Region; indicating underutilization for some areas of the resource (where the livestock mass could be increased), with the exception of the municipalities of Coyhaique and Rio Ibáñez, where overutilization of the resource is confirmed. The livestock systems of the Magallanes Region are in the range classified as medium to very good, with the exception of the municipality of Cabo de Hornos, where the degree of intensity of livestock exploitation is considered insufficient.

It is projected that the pressure on ecosystems due to this driver will continue to occur strongly in the municipalities of Hualaihué, Ancud, Castro, Chonchi, Palena, Coyhaique, and to a lesser extent in the rest of Chiloé Island, Chaitén, Futaleufú, Lago Verde, Rio Ibáñez, and almost the entire Magallanes Region (Fig. 1E).

4.6 Expansion of Fishery and Aquaculture Production

It is widely recognized that fisheries are in crisis, which has four dimensions [15]: (i) ecological, as they lose productive capacity; (ii) socioeconomic, because industrial fisheries are sustained by large subsidies while simultaneously harming small-scale fisheries; (iii) intellectual, because fishery sciences have lost credibility by supporting industry interests and refusing to use accumulated ecological knowledge to support management based on precautionary principles; (iv) ethical, because the fisheries sector has discarded any notion of protecting the resources on which it depends. These crises have their greatest expression in Chile in the number of overexploited and fully exploited fisheries [84], and the sustained conflicts between artisanal and industrial fisheries (Subsecretaría de Pesca y Acuicultura [85]; in Spanish SUBPESCA).

The study area concentrates high-value fisheries, many of which have undergone enormous transformations in scale in recent decades, from small volumes destined for local markets to huge volumes destined almost entirely for export, in response to increasing global demands [86, 87]. The main species caught in the provinces of Palena and Chiloé are anchovy (Engraulidae rigens), clam (Venus antiqua), southern hake (Merlucius australis), jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi), and pelillo (Gracilaria chilensis), which between 2000 and 2017 have had an average decrease in landings of 49%. In the Aysén Region the main species are red sea bass (Gigartina skottsbergii), urchin (Loxechinus albus) and southern sardine (Sprattus fuegensis). Since 2000, red sea bass and southern sardine have experienced an increase in landings; in contrast, sea urchin had a 63% decline between 2000 and 2017.

The main species landed in the Magallanes Region are king crab (3,350 t, 65% of the national total in 2018) and sea urchin (12,506 t, 43% of the national total in 2018). Although both species have had increases in their landings since 2000, during the last five years the dynamics varied, exhibiting a sustained decline [85]. The stock statuses are declared fully exploited for king crab, sardine, and sea urchin and overfished for hake, clam, and jack mackerel. The overfished fisheries are over their maximum sustainable yield and risk collapse without radical changes in their management.

In addition to overfishing, the marine ecosystems and fisheries of Chilean Patagonia are exposed to other threats, including climate change and illegal fishing [6, 84, 86, 87]. The main impacts of climate change in the Patagonian seas are the increase in sea level temperature, acidification, and change in salinity due to water freshening [88, 89]. These disturbances can lead to stock displacements, increased mortality of crustaceans due to sea acidification and a general disturbance in food chains [90]. The main illegal fishing infractions reported in the study area are due to non-compliance with seasonal closures, failure to accredit the origin of fishing, and non-compliance with established quotas [84]. The effects of illegal fishing and climate change act synergistically with overfishing, intensifying the degradation of the marine system [85].

Aquaculture, and salmon farming in particular, have been in Patagonia since 1989, with an explosive development [91]. A boost to private investment through Fundación Chile achieved a rapid dynamism of the sector, reaching historic salmon harvests in 2014 of over 800,000 t per year. There is a strong concentration of aquaculture concessions in the province of Chiloé (more than 900 concessions granted,23% for salmonids, 9.6% for algae, and 66% for mollusks). In the Aysén Region there are 728 concessions granted, of which 0.6% are for mollusks and 99% for salmonids. In the Magallanes Region there are 130 concessions granted, of which 4.6% are for mollusks and 95% for salmonids.Footnote 8

Among the most significant effects of the expansive dynamics of salmon farming in Chilean Patagonia are the following: ISA virus outbreaks in salmonids in 2007, episodes of significant increase in sea lice (Caligus rogercresseyi) infection since 2007, decrease in seed catch in mussel farming during the years 2009 and 2011, and a reduction of fattening stock during the years 2011 and 2012, population explosions (bloom) of microalgae harmful to salmonids in the summer of 2016 and that of the microalga which produces paralytic toxin in mytilids during the fall of 2016. All these events produced social and environmental effects that were widely reported in the press and in scientific reports [91–94]. Recent studies account for the counterproductive effects of aquaculture on regulatory and cultural marine ecosystem services, in addition to the welfare of local communities [95], despite the large generation of jobs associated with the activity. The aforementioned crises have been concentrated mainly in the province of Chiloé, resulting in the closure to the entry of new aquaculture concessions in the province and the displacement of aquaculture activity to the south. Currently, the entire study area is closed to new aquaculture concession applications; however, applications already submitted are still being processed in the Magallanes Region, and therefore an increase in aquaculture activity is expected in the region.

4.7 Demographic Dynamics

Population growth underlies all environmental problems, from global warming to habitat loss. Throughout the twentieth century and so far, this century, there has been unprecedented urban expansion worldwide, driven by population growth, economic growth, land use policies, and transportation costs [96].

Chilean urban growth has seen an almost uncontrolled physical expansion of cities, which has had profound environmental repercussions [97, 98]. Huge areas of land of high agricultural capacity or covered by remnants of natural forests, wetlands, and river and stream beds have been urbanized, seriously disturbing the natural flow of energy and matter [98, 99].

The study area has a population of 452,946 inhabitants, 76% urban and 24% rural [64]. However, there are eight eminently rural municipalities (with more than 70% of the population in this condition), five in the Magallanes Region. Chilean Patagonia has a negative average regional growth, with a percentage variation of −0.9% between 2012 and 2017. However, 24 of the 34 municipalities analyzed (70.5%) had an increase in population between census periods (2012–2017), ranging from 1.24% (municipality of Palena) to 63.60% (municipality of Torres del Paine). At least six of these municipalities are located in the Chiloé Archipelago; Castro increased by 11.28%; Chonchi by 18.18%; Curaco de Vélez by 12.52%; Dalcahue by 28.7%; Queilén by 4.81%; and Quellón by 24.70%.

It should be noted that these municipalities suffered marked growth in the previous decade, associated with the establishment of the aquaculture industry [100], which in turn was associated with phenomena of agricultural abandonment [101] and subdivision of land for second homes, which contributed to the fragmentation of the landscape [102]. Other municipalities with an increase in population in 2012–2017 are Río Verde (72.35%) and Torres del Paine (63.6%), which is caused by the growth of the international tourist destination.

It should be noted that the regions of Aysén and Magallanes have been classified in population terms as erratic zones, i.e. a group of regions that are distinguished by their volatility, made up of regions of smaller demographic size, which makes them more susceptible to more intense rates of migration, associated with temporary migratory flows determined both by public policies and by growth in industrial activities, especially mining [103].

The mean proportion of inhabitants who recognize themselves as belonging to an Indigenous people is 29.9%. The municipalities of Guaitecas (51.4%), Queilén (51.7%), and Quinchao (50.51%) stand out, with more than 50% of their population belonging to Indigenous people. The lowest proportion of inhabitants belonging to Indigenous people is the Magallanes Region, with an average of 22.3%. The highest proportion is the Los Lagos Region, with 34.92%, and 30.9% in the Aysén Region (see [104]).

4.8 Economic Growth

Although the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation is still debated, it is widely recognized that several critical planetary boundaries have already been crossed as a result of the current capitalist model [105, 106]. Economic growth in Chilean Patagonia depends significantly on natural resources, as in the rest of Chile. Thus, for example, the fisheries and aquaculture sector is of great importance to Patagonia’s GDP (12% of total GDP in 2016).Footnote 9 In the Aysén Region it represents the main contribution to growth (28% of GDP), which is mainly due to aquaculture [107].

The Magallanes Region led the growth of the study area in 2016 and 2017 (4.7% for the 2015–2016 period), followed by Aysén (1.9%). The increase in 2016 is explained by the increase in the activity of the industrial manufacturing sector, associated with the increase in production of the fishing industry subsector; while for 2017 the increase was associated with the fuel processing subsector.Footnote 10 This growth has been indisputably associated with environmental effects derived from the expansion of economic activities. In the latest environmental performance evaluation of Chile, ECLAC and OECD [18] indicated that: “as a result of the growing economic activity, greater extraction and use of natural resources, and the development and expansion of infrastructure, the pressures on Chile’s varied biological diversity are intensifying. In addition, deep income inequality exacerbates environmental conflicts and fuels mistrust.” Biodiversity conservation objectives are progressively being integrated into other policy areas such as agriculture, forestry, and mining, but tangible results have yet to materialize. As a result, the country and the region face large-scale conservation challenges that involve more than just the green and blue discourses of sustainable growth.

4.9 Institutional Factors and Environmental Governance

Governance has been recognized as a driver of ecosystem change [4]. The norms or institutional frameworks are a relevant dimension of governance. In Chile these frameworks are inscribed within meta-norms such as neoliberalism, sustainability, and the “polluter pay” principle. Neoliberalism in particular is the dominant model for political economic practice, and therefore environmental governance has been determined by the neoliberal imperative to deregulate, liberalize trade and investment, commercialize, and privatize [108–111]. This has had implications for nature conservation in Chile, from changing social values towards nature and the environment to conservation and resource management instruments (e.g. [112–115].

The literature presents Chile as an iconic example of neoliberal policies in action (e.g. [116]) and an example of continued economic dependence on nature, with an unresolved tension in its accumulation strategy, which has not been able to absorb the negative externalities in the use of nature [113]. The cause-effect relationship between governance and its effect on ecosystems is probably the most difficult to establish, and certainly requires a historical perspective. Therefore, in this chapter we will only focus on exemplifying some regulatory norms (Table 3) and their current limitations to achieve good governance.

Table 3 Scope, instruments, and limitations of the institutional framework in Chile, with emphasis on the Patagonia region
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The main conservation instrument in Chilean Patagonia is the National System of State Protected Areas (in Spanish SNASPE). Several studies show that the design and coverage of terrestrial and marine protected areas (PAs) are still inadequate to conserve key biodiversity features, that their management approaches are insufficient to address threats and pressures on biodiversity, and that they have a low degree of ecological integrity due to increasing levels of environmental degradation [117]. Many of these areas also lack up-to-date management plans, have delimitation problems, and have undergone changes in their size and boundaries. This is in addition to the fact that there are no territorial management instruments that regulate the use of the areas surrounding PAs [118].

Approximately 50% (130,225.02 km2) of the terrestrial landscape in the study area is in some SNASPE conservation category; national parks represent 85% of this total. Private terrestrial protected areas represent 3.5% (9296.13 km2) of the total territory. There is also marine conservation, especially in the Kawésqar National Reserve, as reported by Tecklin et al. [119] and the Seno Almirantazgo Multiple Use Coastal Marine Protected Area (in Spanish AMCP-MU) with 115,200 ha.

Despite the recognition of their importance, terrestrial and marine PAs in Chilean Patagonia are located in places with limited access, which has less effect on preventing changes in ecosystems [120], as is the case in the Aysén and Magallanes regions. There are no metrics to measure the effectiveness of conservation, and even if they did exist, resources are required for monitoring and effective protection. Chile is one of the Latin American countries that invests the least in its protected areas [121].

A similar situation occurs with private protected areas (PPAs), where it is even more complex to determine the effectiveness of conservation measures, given their diversity in terms of tenure, motivations, and spatial distribution. While the number of PPAs has grown in Chilean Patagonia, many of them lack legal, institutional, and administrative recognition, which has resulted in a lack of integration within the broader scope of conservation [122]. At least part of land acquisition for private conservation is speculative and driven by rising land prices, which is why several PPAs have faced various conflicts with local and Indigenous communities [123, 124]. Other emerging forms of private conservation are the so-called “real right of conservation” and conservation landscapes, which however suffer from the same limitations as PPAs: lack of implementation effectiveness, conflicting values, and low economic efficiency [125].

Management tools have not been able to reduce or prevent pressure on natural resources due to: (i) their limited scope (e.g. subsidies under the Native Forest Law); (ii) the lack of monitoring of their implementation, as in the case of forest and fisheries management plans; (iii) the lack of resources for their control, as is the case with the Artisanal Fishers Register or fishing quotas. In some cases, these instruments lack legitimacy, leading to non-compliance, as has been documented in the case of the Artisanal Fishers Registry and illegal crab fishing in the Magallanes Region (see [37, 86]). Our review of land-use planning instruments indicates that biodiversity conservation is largely contingent on the economic development strategies of the regions [126, 127]. Environmental assessment instruments are still insufficient to compensate for the negative effects of investment projects. Much of the economic activity in the study area is subject to no more than Declarations of Environmental Impact and lacks Environmental Impact Assessments, as is the case for almost all mining exploitations and prospections, the installation of aquaculture centers and their intensification [60]. The strategic environmental assessment has not fulfilled its role as a coordinating mechanism for different territorial planning instruments, so it has not been possible to address conflicts over priority land uses and resolve contradictory activities or those that present proximity conflicts [128]. For example, this is reflected in the pressure currently suffered by the Skyring Sound, which is a Patagonian area where, as mentioned above, multiple drivers of change and incompatible uses are concentrated (e.g. mining projects presented for environmental assessment, aquaculture development, tourism development, among others).

4.9.1 Synergistic Effects of Direct and Indirect Drivers

Eight types of clusters were configured in the 34 municipalities within the study area using the methodology described (Fig. 2). It should be noted that the spatial configuration defined by this analysis is consistent with the conclusions obtained in the description of the indicators and in the analysis of uniformity and intensity [28]. The resulting zones do not correspond to defined administrative areas, but rather group municipalities that behave similarly in terms of drivers:

Fig. 2
A map of Patagonia highlights the types of municipalities, the regional capital, Carretera Austral, and international and regional boundaries. An inset word map marks the location of the study area on the top right.

Chilean Patagonia. Types of municipalities resulting from the cluster analysis. Each of the colors groups municipalities that in terms of drivers of ecosystem change behave similarly

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Type 1. Includes only the municipality of Coyhaique, which is home to 13% of the population of the study area, and is the second most populated municipality after Punta Arenas, with 86% urban population. This type of municipality has a higher growth rate than that of the country and the region. The progressive concentration of population in the city could be explained by the mobility or migration of people from municipalities of lower rank in the hierarchy of the region and other regions of the country to the city of Coyhaique. This is manifested in higher consumption of electricity (third highest electricity consumption) and firewood. The high consumption of firewood is also associated with a high annual deforestation rate (0.03%). The municipality has productive industrial and business activities related to aquaculture [91]; however, this activity does not occur in areas around the municipality. There are also metal mining concessions in the mountainous areas of the municipality.

Type 2. Includes only the municipality of Quellón, which with 6% of the population of the study area is the third most important urban center. One of the differentiating characteristics of this municipality is that 49% of its population are Indigenous people. This condition is associated with multiple activities that include seaweed extraction and the expansion of livestock activities, with a carrying capacity of 0.94 animals/ha. Firewood extraction is also an important activity, although the annual rate of forest loss is low (0.019%) compared to the municipalities that host the largest cities in the archipelago (e.g. 0.15% in Ancud). Quellón is the second municipality after Punta Arenas with the highest energy consumption per inhabitant; important non-conventional energy development projects are being developed there. The high energy consumption is attributable to aquaculture and fishing activities.

Type 3. Comprises seven municipalities, most of which are located in the Chiloé Archipelago, except for Aysén and Hualaihué. These are municipalities with a strong cultural heritage of native peoples, mainly in terms of varied activities. These municipalities have greater livestock development with above-average stocking capacities (1.24 animals per hectare compared to an average of 0.8 in the study area). There was peat extraction pressure in these municipalities in the past, but despite the fact that this activity has declined, these ecosystems continue to suffer pressures for Sphagnum extraction [58, 55]. Their greatest pressures are mostly related to the loss of native forest at an average annual rate of 0.05% (maximum 0.15% in Ancud and minimum 0.007% in Quinchao) and to the expansion of tourism in municipalities belonging to consolidated (Chiloé Archipelago) and emerging (municipality of Hualaihué) destinations.

Type 4. Includes only the municipality of Punta Arenas, the largest urban center in the Magallanes region, which concentrates 29% of the population of the study area, with 95% living in the urban zone. Punta Arenas is divided into two large areas, continental and insular. The insular sector includes Dawson Island, the archipelago and Kawésqar National Park, where the islands of Santa Inés, Clarence, Capitán Aracena, and Desolación stand out. With difficult habitability conditions due to their geomorphology, climate, and precarious accessibility, these sites coexist with nature conservation, fishing activities, and tourism development. The urban area of Punta Arenas is where the socioeconomic activities of the municipality are based, mainly those related to industrial and tourism development. This area has one of the largest increases in the annual visitor rate within the study area (0.23%, much higher than the study area average of 0.04%) (see also [65]). This municipality is the gateway to Antarctic and sub-Antarctic ecosystems that are emerging as new tourist destinations. This municipality has the highest energy consumption, probably associated with its industrial development.

Type 5. Includes almost all of the Magallanes Region, with the exception of the municipalities of Punta Arenas, Primavera, San Gregorio, Laguna Blanca, Torres del Paine, and Río Verde. The municipalities contained in this category have marked rurality, low population and are isolated. They have an incipient tourist development, with a variation rate of 0.22% for Timaukel. It should be noted that the municipality of Puerto Natales belongs to the tourist destination Puerto Eden, classified as a potential destination, where it seeks to promote tourist circuits in its northern zone through infrastructure [63]. This group of municipalities is widely affected by mining projects (it is the group with the second largest number of projects after Type 6), in addition to presenting an incremental development of aquaculture, particularly salmon farming [91].

Type 6. Includes the tourist municipalities of Palena, Lago Verde, Río Verde, and Torres del Paine. The differentiating characteristic is that it groups emerging and consolidated tourist destinations with positive trends in visitor flow. These municipalities have had positive population growth, except Lago Verde, which is attributed to the development of new economic activities such as tourism. Large population growth rates stand out in the municipalities of Río Verde and Torres del Paine with 2012–2017 increases of 72.35% and 63.60%, respectively. However, these are municipalities with low populations, ranging from 1,711 inhabitants to 617 and with a low proportion of Indigenous people (21.4%).

Type 7. Includes the municipalities of San Gregorio and Primavera, whose differentiating characteristic is the strong effects of mining development (oil and coal). The Primavera municipality belongs to the province of Tierra del Fuego, which has been identified as a potential destination for tourism development. These municipalities have a low number of inhabitants (average 978) and their population variation is erratic in time and space. For example, for San Gregorio there was a negative 2012–2017 variation of −31% and for the municipality of Primavera a positive variation of 13.98%.

Type 8. Comprises a good part of the municipalities of the Aysén Region, whose development is focused mainly on aquaculture and fishing activities and to a lesser extent on tourism, which has shown a negative variation in visitors in recent years. Another activity that puts pressure on this territory is mining of silver, zinc, and to a lesser extent gold and lead. These municipalities generally have more inhabitants than the rest of the types that are not capital cities (types 1 and 4). They represent 4.9% of the population of the study area and have a high proportion of Indigenous people (average 30%). They also have important forest loss rates, averaging 0.016% per year, containing a considerable area and forest types used for fuelwood extraction.

5 Discussion

The ways in which ecosystems respond to anthropogenic pressures are complex, and our understanding of the effect of human activities on ecosystems is limited [129, 130]. The spatial patterns of drivers are varied, and the diversity of recent changes is largely unknown. In many places, we know little about which drivers are having the greatest impact on ecosystem condition, their cumulative effect, or how the composition of drivers is changing over time [131]. Given the availability of information, this study has focused on characterizing these drivers and their current and projected trends, as well as their spatial dynamics, information that is a valuable input for conservation planning.

The expansion trends of the drivers we observed coincide with regional (e.g. [4]) and country assessments [18, 132]. All the drivers analyzed generally exhibit a past increase (exponential) or constant trend, but no evidence of a decrease, which is in line with global trends [14, 15]. The case of governance is different as it cannot be assessed as increasing or decreasing, adequate or inadequate in a normative sense, which is why only some limitations of the institutional framework have been presented. Most of the drivers are related, with mining-energy-economic growth and population-tourism interactions being the most identifiable with the available data. The dynamics of the different drivers vary spatially, as shown by the cluster analysis. In some cases, these dynamics are circumscribed or punctual and therefore more easily attributable (e.g. mining expansion), while in other cases the effect of the drivers is more difficult to visualize. The main trends can be summarized as follows: (i) The activities that have expanded the most over time in Chilean Patagonia are mining, aquaculture, and tourism. Along with expanding, they have become concentrated, as a result of which recent conflicts are evident (e.g. Riesco Island; areas saturated by aquaculture in Skyring Sound, Xaultegua Gulf, Puerto Natales, Beaufort Bay) and future conflicts are projected given the incompatibility of these activities with biodiversity and landscape conservation [60, 113, 133]. The saturation of areas for aquaculture generates new pressures for salmon farming in other areas, while expanding tourist routes with land and transoceanic marine routes. (ii) The activities that have remained constant or have been brought in are cattle ranching and exotic plantations, which may eventually have an impact on the recovery of the native forest or at least on slowing down its degradation and consequent loss. However, the flip side of this trend is the intensification of agriculture and livestock farming through technology, which has created significant environmental problems in other regions of the country (e.g. [134]). (iii) The territories that could be considered under most pressure are types 7 and 8, where the drivers of expansion of mining, fishing, aquaculture, and tourism are concentrated and where these activities are growing at the highest rates. As mentioned above, the expression of the interaction between drivers is highly context-specific, hence the importance of identifying their simultaneous presence and magnitude in a given space. (iv) The least pressured territories belong to type 5 (municipalities of Puerto Natales, Timaukel, and Porvenir), where the drivers identified have lower effects on ecosystems (e.g. emerging tourism), and expansion rates are the lowest. (v) Potential territories in socio-environmental conflict are places where Indigenous people are concentrated and where some of the economic drivers are beginning to make their presence felt in new territories. The Chiloé Archipelago and the Aysén Region are the most susceptible to this. (vi) While it is not possible to rigorously link direct and indirect drivers, the literature strongly supports the direct relationship between economic growth (affluence), population, and environmental impact [135]. This is most clearly observed in the relationship between mining growth and expansion and energy production and between population growth, affluence, and tourism expansion, as documented by other studies (e.g. [66]).

6 Conclusions and Recommendations

The results shed light on actions and recommendations to minimize the simultaneous impact of these drivers in Chilean Patagonia, including the following:

  • To reform the environmental impact assessment regulations by adding the criterion of risk to the presence and expansion of certain drivers.

  • To reformulate the current strategic environmental assessment tool, with a view to orienting it to regional biodiversity conservation strategies, incorporating evaluation of the synergistic effects of economic drivers.

  • To promote legally binding territorial planning. Regional territorial planning currently provides only guidance for the territory, without any legal attribution to shape the proposed zoning. Also, territorial and coastal use planning instruments have few environmental considerations [127, 136, 137].

  • To design territorial strategies that include financial strategies, considering public and private resources to increase financing for biodiversity conservation management.

  • To promote the integration of biodiversity management in territorial planning instruments (e.g. establish metrics related to carrying capacity as a requirement in areas of tourist interest) and productive development (e.g. promote agroforestry in incentive instruments for farmers and ranchers).

  • Finally, it is necessary to recognize the complexity of the environmental problems facing both the country and the study area. This condition requires both disciplinary collaboration and the connection of researchers with the practice and experience of territorial problems in all their magnitude. While a practice-based approach may challenge our static scientific mindset regarding who we are as environmental researchers and educators, scientific research is often insufficient to address the complexity of environmental problems [138].