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The world we live in today is plagued with a multitude of challenges that have the capacity to endanger the survival of humanity on a global scale. These challenges can be broadly classified into different categories, including political, economic, ecological, cultural, technological, and social. This article endeavors to undertake an in-depth analysis of these challenges and the potential disasters that they could trigger. It underscores the severity of the current situation and aims to identify the underlying causes of these challenges, with the ultimate goal of formulating workable solutions that can prevent a catastrophe of an unparalleled scale.

The Challenges Today’s World is Facing

Upon reflection, it is evident that while our society has made strides toward progress, we are still confronted with a variety of challenges. The Ipsos Global Trends Report recognizes that we are entering a “new world disorder.” “We can no longer afford to focus on the big issue at hand, because there are many interrelated issues at play” (Ipsos, 2023).

The challenges we face as a global community are diverse, multifaceted, and interrelated. One such challenge is political polarization, which refers to the increasing division and disagreement between different political factions within society and politics. This can be caused by a variety of factors, including economic inequality, ecological challenges such as climate change, and the agency of political parties and media outlets promoting their own narrow interests. Polarization can lead to social unrest, political instability, and a breakdown of trust in democratic institutions. It is a multifaceted issue that affects not only political spheres but also social and economic aspects of society.

Economic challenges include income inequality, concentration of wealth, reduced economic opportunities, and rising food/water/energy prices. These challenges are so serious and highly focused that the visibility of other emerging challenges is impeded, such as supply chain disruptions, inflation, debt, labor market gaps, protectionism, and educational disparities, which are not receiving the attention and resources they require and moving the world economy into choppy waters.

Ecological challenges, such as climate change and ecosystem destruction, have placed our food security, ecosystems, and human health in peril. These challenges could lead to catastrophic consequences such as mass migrations and social instability. Cultural challenges, including discrimination and identity politics, have contributed to social fragmentation and threaten global inclusion, diversity, and unity. Such challenges perpetuate stereotypes and social hierarchies. Furthermore, technological challenges like cyberthreats and artificial intelligence are rapidly developing, and their implications led to an increased risk of cyber-attacks, data breaches and cyberespionage, posing severe threats for individuals, businesses, and governments.

Finally, demographic shifts and migration have resulted in social and economic disparities. The aging population, longer life expectancies, and lower birth rates have created strains on social services, such as health care and pensions, as well as on the economy as a whole. Demographic shifts can also bring about changes in cultural and social norms, leading to challenges in adapting to new ways of life. Migration can create cultural clashes, social tensions, and economic disparities.

The Types of Catastrophes

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) defines a disaster as a “serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society at any scale due to hazardous events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerability and capacity, leading to one or more of the following: human, material, economic and environmental losses and impacts” (UNDRR, n.d.). “Catastrophe” is often seen as a synonym for “disaster.” However, there is a difference between disaster and catastrophe, both in scale and level of sustained support required to get to recovery (Rotton, 2019). A disaster is a severe event such as a massive flood, destructive tornado or hurricane, or human-caused or terrorist attack, while a catastrophe is an unusually extreme, rare event that affects an entire nation or part of the world. From the events of September 11, 2001, in the United States to COVID-19, these are typical examples of catastrophes. “These events require extensive resource assistance from outside the region and a global response. The damage to the social order, psyche, and security of the country or countries affected may be profound and prolonged” (ACHE, n.d.). To summarize, “Catastrophe” is a more disruptive disaster with a larger scale and scope of impact, and more difficult to recover from.

Catastrophes are traditionally and generally categorized as human-made or natural. The human-made catastrophes include climate change, ecosystem destruction, oil spills, chemical leaks, industrial disasters, and wars, while the natural catastrophes include earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and pandemics. These events can cause widespread damage to infrastructure, homes, and property, as well as loss of life and displacement of communities.

And as the technological revolution evolves, a subdivision of the catastrophes that occur in or closely related to cyberspace emerges, whose impact on sustainability is unknown. In cybersecurity, as more devices and systems become connected to the Internet, the risk of cyber-attacks and data breaches increases. A major cyber-attack on a critical infrastructure system (such as a power grid) could have serious environmental and social consequences. Moreover, the rise of digital technology has led to an increase in electronic waste, which can be difficult to dispose of sustainably.

However, there is now a growing awareness that catastrophes cannot be simply divided into “natural” or “human-made” ones. Instead, all of them can be seen as a function of how humans interact with their environment. The Center for Disaster Philanthropy (CDP) adopts a more comprehensive, objective and holistic definition, since they recognize that “disasters are a combination of natural hazards and/or severe weather in an interaction with people” (CDP, 2022). The root causes of disaster risk and disasters stem from structural conditions of a particular mode of development and growth. They are also shaped through social, economic, cultural and political processes, and conditions, practices, priorities, choices, and values that unfold over time (Oliver-Smith et al., 2017).

Determining whether there are more catastrophes happening now than in the past is a challenging task that requires defining what qualifies as a catastrophe and analyzing historical events. Nevertheless, it is apparent that modern technology and globalization have increased the capacity for catastrophic incidents to happen at a greater magnitude. Compared to historic catastrophes like the plague and leprosy, contemporary catastrophes such as nuclear disasters have the potential to cause long-lasting environmental damage and pose a threat to human health and safety for extended periods after the occurrence. Global systems are becoming more connected and therefore more vulnerable in an uncertain risk landscape. For instance, the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly around the world due to modern transportation networks and the interconnectedness of global economies. Other examples include the rise of climate-change-induced wildfires, weather-related disasters, and disease outbreaks, with significant increases in both the total number of outbreaks and the diversity of diseases over the last few decades.

Additionally, in order to adapt to today's unprecedentedly complex regional, national, and international situation, a special kind of definition of catastrophe exists, which is called the complex humanitarian emergency (CHE). It is a type of disaster event (or sequence of events) that is caused by and results in a complicated set of social, health, economic and often political circumstances, usually leading to great human suffering and death, and requiring external assistance and aid (CDP, 2022).

To reduce the impact catastrophes on humanity and our planet, it is crucial to understand the reasons why catastrophes occur more than before. It is the interplay of three factors—human error, technological failures, and complex systems—that makes contemporary catastrophes even more complex and serious. Human error, as a common cause of catastrophes, is defined as any mistake or action that unintentionally causes harm or damage to an individual, organization, or society. Simple mistakes can lead to major accidents, especially in high-risk industries such as aviation or nuclear power. Often, human error occurs as the result of the interplay of psychological, social, and environmental factors. For instance, in aviation accidents, pilots have been found to commit errors due to fatigue, distraction, lack of experience, or failing to follow procedures. In health care, errors can arise from miscommunication or mistranslation of medical instructions, leading to adverse drug events or wrong patient procedures.

Technological failures are another cause of catastrophes. Systems such as nuclear power plants or aircraft require intricate engineering, and even a small failure within these systems can lead to disastrous consequences. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011 was caused by several technological failures. After a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami damaged the plant, cooling systems failed, leading to three meltdowns and the release of radioactive material. The failures were due to underestimating the risks posed by natural disasters and design shortcomings in the cooling systems.

Complex systems can contribute to the occurrence of catastrophic events, defined as those that contain a large number of interacting components. In the article “How Complex Systems Fail” by Richard I. Cook, the nature of failure in complex systems, including healthcare, transportation, and power generation, is discussed (Cook, 2023). Despite being heavily defended against failure, catastrophes can still occur due to the combination of small failures. Indirect, cascading impacts can be significant. In the current era, modern technology and global interconnectedness result in a web of interdependent factors that make it much more difficult to predict potential consequences. For instance, the global financial crisis of 2008 is a good example of the complex interactions between financial institutions, government regulators, and a range of economic factors leading to a recession and years of economic uncertainty, despite the crisis being triggered by defaults on subprime mortgages in the US.

The Catastrophes and Modern Technology

“Humanity, the built environment, and ubiquitous computing are becoming a continuum of consciousness and technology reflecting the full range of human behavior, from individual philanthropy to organized crime. New forms of civilization will emerge from this convergence of minds, information, and technology worldwide” (Glenn, 2023). The disasters that have occurred under this new civilization are inextricably linked to modern technology, in terms of their causes, dynamic processes, as well as their consequences and effects. Correspondingly, we humans are using technology to cope with catastrophes.

Are catastrophes predictable or controllable? To a certain extent, the answer is yes. And this predictability or controllability seems to become more within reach as we apply more cutting-edge technologies such as big data and AI for disaster preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation.

The first way that modern technology can assist is by improving our ability to be prepared for catastrophes. For natural catastrophes, this can be achieved through the use of advanced technologies such as weather radar, satellites, and sensors that provide accurate meteorological and geological data. With efficient geo-location and scanning technologies, it is beneficial for the government to predict the area of impact before a disaster. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can also be utilized to analyze the collected information, allowing for a better understanding of patterns and trends in natural hazards. In the face of changes in planetary systems due to climate change and overexploitation of ecosystems, communities around the world are seeking new ways to understand and manage ecological–social risk. Creating “hybrid knowledge” on risk by using traditional methods and triangulating with data gained through science and technology become a necessity for more and more communities (Trogrlic et al., 2022).

Secondly, technologies can aid in the development of better coping mechanisms for the effects of catastrophes. For example, construction and engineering technologies can be used to construct more robust infrastructure and buildings that can withstand natural disasters. Technology can be used to coordinate and manage the response effort. Advanced communication technologies and logistics systems can also assist in faster response times, enabling the provision of essential rescue and assistance. For instance, big data generated from geo-informatics and remote sensing platforms helps identify the gaps and make recommendations on where to allocate resources to mitigate the risk. This includes helping to see recovery, focusing on early warning dissemination systems and assessing resilience. In terms of self-help for survivors, social media also collects data and allows survivors to mark themselves safely in times of crisis, which is helpful for both emergency response teams and distressed friends and family.

Last but not least, technology can be used to support the reconstruction phase after a catastrophe. Take the JRC’s (European Commission's Joint Research Center) applications in space technology as a case in point. In 2008, the European Commission, UN Development Group, and World Bank established a platform for partnership and action to strengthen coordination for early response capacities and recovery planning. The JRC contributed to this with the development of a guide for a multi-stakeholder needs assessment recovery framework (PDNA) that includes sector-specific tools for damage assessment from remotely sensed and other data sources. The PDNA framework was notably used during the Haiti earthquake disaster in 2010, where the JRC worked with the World Bank's GFDRR and the United Nations UNOSAT to produce detailed damage assessments and statistics for the most affected locations, supporting the Haitian government-led PDNA, which fed into the Action Plan for National Recovery and Development of Haiti (EU Science Hub, n.d.).

However, it is important to recognize that catastrophes such as earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, and rainstorms are often difficult to predict and fully control. Technology can therefore help us to better cope with the effects of catastrophes, but it cannot completely prevent them from occurring. Overall, the use of technology to support the scientific prediction, planning, preparation, management, and rehabilitation of catastrophes remains necessary and effective to minimize the impact of catastrophes on people.

Consensus in a Divided World

In addition to the relationship between disaster and technology, there is a key dilemma, which is the difficulty of responding to catastrophes at a time when divisions and barriers are deepening on a global scale.

We are in a world of polycrisis where “the whole (situation) is even more dangerous than the sum of the parts (of crisis)” (Ipsos, 2023), and catastrophes are almost uncontrollably happening. At the same time, our world is becoming even more divided, which make the situation worse, or it could be said that a divided world becomes the major crisis in itself, even as it becomes a motive and trigger on the eve of disaster. The results of the survey on attitudes toward globalization show that there is a tendency toward increased division worldwide. The benefits of globalization are still debated, with some seeing advantages such as increased travel, cultural exchange, and cheap products, while others see negative impacts such as diluted local cultures, lifestyle homogenization, and rising emissions (Ipsos, 2023).

From disparities in economic development and living standards, to cultural conflicts and social injustice, these are various reasons why the divide is exacerbated. Economic, geopolitical, public health, and societal fractures worsen after pandemics, which increases the likelihood of different and postponed responses to the important challenges confronting humanity and the environment. Political polarization is also a major trend, with the rise of far-right and far-left movements and increasing conflict in regions such as Europe, Asia, and Latin America. There is also a generation gap, with older generations more conservative and younger generations more concerned with issues such as climate change and social justice. Finally, there is a divide between developed and developing countries, with many developing nations struggling to keep up with advancements. These divides are likely to continue and even deepen in the future.

To avoid or decrease the irreversible hazards caused by catastrophes, it is necessary to build consensus, to find a way to combine universal values with regional cultures to promote dialogue, exchange, and cooperation among civilizations. But before that, what do we mean by consensus? The Cambridge Dictionary explains “consensus” in a concise manner: a generally accepted opinion or decision among a group of people. There is a human consensus, which includes universal values such as freedom, human rights, security, and happiness, which transcend political, economic, and cultural differences and become the common value orientation pursued by human beings. However, human consensus should also take into account historical origins and cultural tradition. A typical example is that there are major differences between the collectivism emphasized by East Asian societies and the individualism shared by Western societies.

Has consensus become impossible in a divided world? Fundamentally, we share so many values. We get caught up in the expression and implementation of those values, but that leaves room for hope that the forces dividing our world could also help to bring it together. From a practical point of view, we need to reach consensus because of the fact that the challenges we face today are transnational and transinstitutional, and they all require collaborative efforts on a global scale to produce viable solutions. Such collaborative action can be achieved through the involvement of governments, international organizations, universities, NGOs, and creative individuals, crossing diverse cultural contexts and facilitating exchanges between them, thus increasing mutual understanding and trust.

Consensus can be possible in a divided world, but it requires several considerations. Foremost, a concerted effort must be made to identify and define problems with precision, and to investigate them in a timely and cost-effective manner. Additionally, it is crucial to select effective leaders, convene expert panels, and ensure that data is accessible, supported, and disseminated. Moreover, it is essential to recognize that those who resist consensus may do so out of deeply held convictions, and to engage in intentional and sustained efforts to build trust in digital spaces to avoid further fragmentation. Finally, promoting dialogue, exchange, and cooperation among civilizations, while respecting diverse cultures, ethnicities, religions, and values, is crucial to achieving harmony and consensus.

The pursuit of consensus should remain a priority for humanity as it promotes harmony and cooperation in a diverse society. Seeking consensus does not require individuals to abandon their unique beliefs and values, but rather involves respecting the distinctiveness of each individual. Through this approach, we can achieve harmony, prevent further division in the world, and reduce the likelihood of unforeseen catastrophes. Addressing the world's challenges requires collaboration, communication, and mutual respect. Pursuing consensus can serve as a means to achieve these goals.