Abstract
Previous studies have examined the projected climate types in China by 2100. This study identified the emergence time of climate shifts at a 1◦ scale over China from 1990 to 2100 and investigated the temporal evolution of Köppen–Geiger climate classifications computed from CMIP5 multi-model outputs. Climate shifts were detected in transition regions (7%–8% of China’s land area) by 2010, including rapid replacement of mixed forest (Dwb) by deciduous forest (Dwa) over Northeast China, strong shrinkage of alpine climate type (ET) on the Tibetan Plateau, weak northward expansion of subtropical winterdry climate (Cwa) over Southeast China, and contraction of oceanic climate (Cwb) in Southwest China. Under all future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, the reduction of Dwb in Northeast China and ET on the Tibetan Plateau was projected to accelerate substantially during 2010–30, and half of the total area occupied by ET in 1990 was projected to be redistributed by 2040. Under the most severe scenario (RCP8.5), sub-polar continental winter dry climate over Northeast China would disappear by 2040–50, ET on the Tibetan Plateau would disappear by 2070, and the climate types in 35.9% and 50.8% of China’s land area would change by 2050 and 2100, respectively. The results presented in this paper indicate imperative impacts of anthropogenic climate change on China’s ecoregions in future decades.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Almorox, J., V. H. Quej, and P. Martí, 2015: Global performance ranking of temperature-based approaches for evapotranspiration estimation considering Köppen climate classes. J. Hydrol., 528, 514–522.
Baker, B., H. Diaz, W. Hargrove, and F. Hoffman, 2010: Use of the Köppen–Trewartha climate classification to evaluate climatic refugia in statistically derived ecoregions for the People’s Republic of China. Climatic Change, 98, 113–131.
Chan, D., and Q. G. Wu, 2015: Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950. Sci. Rep., 5, 13487.
Cho, M.-H., K.-O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G.- H. Lim, 2015: The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over East Asia in present and possible future climate. Earth Sys. Dynam., 6(1), 147–160.
De Castro, M., C. Gallardo, K. Jylha, and H. Tuomenvirta, 2007: The use of a climate-type classification for assessing climate change effects in Europe from an ensemble of nine regional climate models. Climatic Change, 81, 329–341.
Engelbrecht, C. J., and F. A. Engelbrecht, 2015: Shifts in Köppen-Geiger climate zones over southern Africa in relation to key global temperature goals. Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1354-1.
Feng, S., Q. Hu, W. Huang, C.-H. Ho, R. P. Li, and Z. H. Tang, 2014: Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global Planet. Change, 112, 41–52.
Fraedrich, K., F.-W. Gerstengarbe, and P. C. Werner, 2001: Climate shifts during the last century. Climatic Change, 50, 405–417.
Gnanadesikan, A., and R. J. Stouffer, 2006: Diagnosing atmosphere-ocean general circulation model errors relevant to the terrestrial biosphere using the Köppen climate classification. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22701.
Hou, X. Y., S. Sun, J. Zhang, M. He, Y. Wang, D. Kong, and S. Wang, 1982: Vegetation Map of the People’s Republic of China. China Cartography Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
Köppen, W., 1936: Das geographisca system der klimate. Handbuch der Klimatologie, W. Köppen, G. Geiger, Eds., Borntraeger, 1–44.
Legates, D. R., and C. J. Willmott, 1990a: Mean seasonal and spatial variability in global surface air temperature. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 41, 11–21.
Legates, D. R., and C. J.Willmott, 1990b: Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 111–127.
Leng, W. F., H. S. He, R. C. Bu, L. M. Dai, Y. M. Hu, and X. G. Wang, 2008: Predicting the distributions of suitable habitat for three larch species under climate warming in Northeastern China. For. Eco. Manag., 254, 420–428.
Ma, J., Y. M. Hu, R. C. Bu, Y. Chang, H. W. Deng, and Q. Qin, 2014: Predicting impacts of climate change on the aboveground carbon sequestration rate of a temperate forest in northeastern China. PLoS one, 2014, 9(4), e96157.
Mahlstein, I., J. S. Daniel, and S. Solomon, 2013: Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature. Nature Climate Change, 3, 739–743.
Ni, J., 2011: Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: Key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds. Reg. Environ. Change, 11, 49–64.
Ni, J., M. T. Sykes, I. C. Prentice, and W. Cramer, 2000: Modelling the vegetation of China using the process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model BIOME3. Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 9, 463–479.
Pan, S., H. Q. Tian, C. Q. Lu, S. R. S. Dangal, and M. L. Liu, 2015: Net primary production of major plant functional types in China: Vegetation classification and ecosystem simulation. Acta Ecol. Sin., 35(2), 28–36.
Peel, M. C., B. L. Finlayson, and T. A. McMahon, 2007: Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 439–473.
Peterson T. C., R. Vose, R. Schmoyer, and V. Razuväev, 1998: Global historical climatology network (GHCN) quality control of monthly temperature data. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 1169–1179.
Phillips T. J., and C. J.W. Bonfils, 2015: Köppen bioclimatic evaluation of CMIP historical climate simulations. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 064005.
Rohli, R. V., T. A. Joyner, S. J. Reynolds, C. Shaw, and J. R. Vázquez, 2015: Globally extended Köppen–Geiger climate classification and temporal shifts in terrestrial climatic types. Phys. Geogr., 36, 142–157.
Rubel, F., and M. Kottek, 2010: Observed and projected climate shifts 1901–2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Meteorol. Z., 19, 135–141.
Shi, Y., X. J. Gao, and J. Wu, 2012: Projected changes in Köppen climate types in the 21st century over China. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 495–498.
Song, M. H., C. P. Zhou, and H. Ouyang, 2005: Simulated distribution of vegetation types in response to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau. J. Veg. Sci., 16, 341–350.
Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485–498.
Van Vuuren, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The representative concentration pathways: An overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5–31.
Wang, H., 2014: A multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on the distribution and productivity of ecosystems in China. Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 133–144.
Wang, H., J. Ni, and I. C. Prentice, 2011: Sensitivity of potential natural vegetation in China to projected changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2. Reg. Environ. Change, 11, 715–727.
Wang, M. Y., and J. E. Overland, 2004: Detecting Arctic climate change using Köppen climate classification. Climatic Change, 67, 43–62.
Xie, Z. H., F. Yuan, Q. Y. Duan, J. Zheng, M. L. Liang, and F. Chen, 2007: Regional parameter estimation of the VIC land surface model: Methodology and application to river basins in China. J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 447–468.
Xu, C. H., and Y. Xu, 2012: The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5, 527–533.
Yu, L., M. K. Cao, and K. R. Li, 2006: Climate-induced changes in the vegetation pattern of China in the 21st century. Eco. Res., 21, 912–919.
Zhang, Y. J., and G. S. Zhou, 2008: Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes. Sci. China Ser. D, 51, 984–991.
Zhao, D. S., and S. H.Wu, 2014: Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 15–28.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License, which permits any non-commercial use, sharing, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, and provide a link to the Creative Commons license. You do not have permission under this license to share adapted material derived from this article or parts of it.
The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
To view a copy of this license, visit (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
About this article
Cite this article
Chan, D., Wu, Q., Jiang, G. et al. Projected shifts in Köppen climate zones over China and their temporal evolution in CMIP5 multi-model simulations. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33, 283–293 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5077-8
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-015-5077-8