Abstract
Japan suffered a M9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami on March 11, 2011, which seriously damaged the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and caused a nuclear crisis. The spread of nuclear radiation from the power plant through the atmosphere and ocean was predicted with a short-term climate forecasting model and an ocean circulation model under some idealized assumptions. If nuclear matter were leaked in the near-ground layer of 992 hPa, the climate model results show that the nuclear radiation would cover North America 10 days after the initial leakage, with the concentration at the forefront dramatically reduced to 10 millionths of the initial model concentration at the source. The radiation would span Europe in 15 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 30 days. If the initial leakage was assumed to occur in the layer 5000-m above the ground, the radiation would cover Europe in 10 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 15 days. Moreover, under the assumption that the nuclear matter leaked in the 10000-m layer, the radiation would affect much of China after 10 days. The ocean circulation model indicates that the nuclear material would be slowly transported northeast of Fukushima and reach 150°E in 50 days, and the nuclear debris in the ocean would be confined to a narrow band. Compared with the spread in the ocean, the area affected by leaked nuclear radiation in the atmosphere would be very large. Atmospheric monitors in North America and Europe will be helpful for estimating the effect in China of any leaked nuclear material.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Sun M H, Song Z X, Lü D L, et al. Numerical prediction system of regional atmospheric environmental emergency response (in Chinese). Meteorol Sci Tech, 2010, 38: 635–641
Chou J F, Xu M. Advancement and prospect of short-term Numerical climate prediction (in Chinese). Chinese Sci Bull, 2001, 46: 890–895
Collins W D, Bitz C M, Blackmon M L, et al. The community climate system model: CCSM3. J Clim, 2006, 19: 2122–2143
Collins W D, Rasch P J, Boville B A, et al. The Formulation and Atmospheric Simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). J Clim, 2006, 19: 2144–2161
Dickinson R E, Oleson K W, Bonan G, et al. The Community Land Model and its climate statistics as a component of the Community Climate System Model. J Clim, 2006, 19: 2302–2324
Briegleb B P, Bitz C M, Hunke E C, et al. Scientific description of the sea ice component in the Community Climate System Model, Version Three. Technical Report NCAR/TN-463+STR. 2004
Simith R D, Gent P R. Reference manual for the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), ocean component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM2.0 and 3.0). Technical Report LA-UR-02-2484. 2002
Zhou T J, Yu R C. Twentieth century surface air temperature over China and the globe simulated by coupled climate models. J Clim, 2006, 19: 5843–5858
Davey M, Huddleston M, Sperber K, et al. STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Clim Dyn, 2002, 18: 403–420
Qiao F L, Yuan Y L, Yang Y Z, et al. Wave-induced mixing in the upper ocean: Distribution and application to a global ocean circulation model. Geophys Res Lett, 2004, 31: L11303, doi: 10.1029/2004 GL019824
Song Z Y, Qiao F L, Wang C Z. The correctness to the spuriously simulated semi-annual cycle of the sea surface temperature in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Sci China Erath Sci, 2011, 54: 438–444
Song Z Y, Qiao F L, Zhao W. The improvement on prediction ability of climate model CCSM3 (in Chinese). Prog Nat Sci, 2009, 19: 203–211
Xia C S, Qiao F L, Yang Y Z, et al. Three-dimensional structure of the summertime circulation in the Yellow Sea from a wave-tidecirculation coupled model. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111: C11S03, doi:10.1029/2005JC003218
Lü X G, Qiao F L, Wang G S, et al. Upwelling off the west coast of Hainan Island in summer: Its detection and mechanisms. Geophys Res Lett, 2008, 35: L02604, doi:10.1029/2007GL032440
Qiao F L, Yuan Y L, Ezer T, et al. A three-dimensional surface waveocean circulation coupled model and its initial testing. Ocean Dyn, 2010, 60: 1339–1355
Lü X G, Qiao F L. Distribution of sunken macroalgae against the background of tidal circulation in the coastal waters of Qingdao, China, in summer 2008. Geophys Res Lett, 2008, 35: L23614, doi:10.1029/2008GL036084
Qiao F L, Wang G S, Lü X G, et al. Drift characteristics of the green macroalgae in the Yellow Sea in 2008 and 2010. Chinese Sci Bull, 2011, 56
You Y, Suginohara N, Fukasawa M, et al. Transport of North Pacific Intermediate Water across Japanese WOCE sections. J Geophys Res, 2003, 108: 3196
Liu Q Y, Hu H B. A subsurface pathway for low potential vorticity transport from the central North Pacific toward Taiwan island. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34: L12710, doi:10.1029/2007GL029510
Chen H M, Zhou T J, Neale R B, et al. Performance of the new NCAR CAM3.5 in East Asian summer Monsoon simulations: Sensitivity to modifications of the convection scheme. J Clim, 2010, 23: 3657–3675
Reynolds R W, Smith T M, Liu C, et al. Daily high-resolutionblended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim, 2007, 20: 5473–5496
Wang G S, Qiao F L, Xia C S. Parallelization of a coupled wave-circulation model and its application. Ocean Dyn, 2010, 60: 331–339
Blumberg A F, Mellor G L. A description of a three-dimensional coastal ocean circulation model. In: Heaps N S, ed. Three Dimensional Coastal Ocean Models, Vol 4. Washington D C: American Geophysical Union, 2010. 1–16
Xia C S, Qiao F L, Zhang Q H, et al. Numerical modeling of the quasiglobal ocean circulation based on POM. J Hydrodyn, 2004, 16: 537–543
Yuan Y L, Pan Z D, Hua F, et al. LAGFD-WAM numerical wave model—I. Basic physical model. Acta Oceanol Sin, 1991, 10: 483–488
Yang Y Z, Qiao F L, Zhao W, et al. MASNUM ocean wave numerical model in spherical coordinates and its application (in Chinese). Acta Oceanol Sin, 2005, 27: 1–7
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Rights and permissions
This article is published under an open access license. Please check the 'Copyright Information' section either on this page or in the PDF for details of this license and what re-use is permitted. If your intended use exceeds what is permitted by the license or if you are unable to locate the licence and re-use information, please contact the Rights and Permissions team.
About this article
Cite this article
Qiao, F., Wang, G., Zhao, W. et al. Predicting the spread of nuclear radiation from the damaged Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Chin. Sci. Bull. 56, 1890–1896 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4513-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4513-0